Saudi prince’s role in prisoner swap sets the stage for diplomatic return
‘Riyadh is eager to leverage its relationship with Russia to prove its value to Western partners and justify its ties with Moscow’
‘It is a first-step diplomatic win for MBS. He will hope to capitalise on it by supporting efforts for a negotiated settlement in Ukraine’
When the news of the Russiaukraine prisoner swap broke on Wednesday, there was a surprise name in all the statements of gratitude from the West: Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
“MBS”, the kingdom’s de facto ruler and a man associated with the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, appears to be using his country’s role in securing the release of foreign fighters captured by Russia in Ukraine to seek a diplomatic comeback. Aiden Aslin, who was threatened with execution after he was captured while fighting in the Ukrainian army as an enlisted soldier, is one of five Britons released thanks to the deal brokered by Riyadh.
Saudi media reports suggest that the Crown Prince had a personal role in overseeing the talks as he secured the release of 10 prisoners of war.
He “held successful mediation sessions” which were “based on the support of Prince Mohammed and in continuation of his efforts to adopt humanitarian initiatives toward the Russian-ukrainian crisis”, a Saudi paper reported, citing a statement from the country’s foreign ministry.
The move will fuel speculation that he is seeking to relaunch himself on the world stage as a diplomat and mediator – perhaps one who will play a larger role in wider negotiations between Ukraine and Russia. He may even be seeking to eclipse Turkey as the leading intermediary from the Middle East.
Saudi Arabia has remained neutral in the Ukraine war and has a cordial relationship with Russia, which one Saudi official recently said was “as warm as the weather in Riyadh”.
But, in the West, the Crown Prince remains a controversial figure because of the Saudi record on human rights and accusations that he personally ordered the murder of Khashoggi, the Washington Post columnist.
A staunch critic of the leadership in Riyadh, Khashoggi was murdered and dismembered in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul in 2018. The Crown Prince denies ordering the killing and has blamed it on rogue Saudi agents.
“[The deal] shows that Saudi Arabia has learnt from Qatari diplomacy in managing relations between the US and the Taliban [in the withdrawal from Afghanistan],” said Neil Quilliam, an associate fellow at the Chatham House think-tank. “As such, Riyadh is eager to leverage its relationship with Russia to demonstrate its value to Western partners and also justify its close ties with Moscow.”
He added: “It is a first-step diplomatic win for MBS, though he will hope to capitalise upon it further by supporting efforts to bring a negotiated settlement to the Ukraine war. However, brokering the prisoner swap is not about to change popular perceptions of MBS.”
In recent weeks, Saudi Arabia has intensified a clampdown on dissent, handing down long prison sentences to those who criticise the leadership online. The prisoner swap has not been welcomed by Saudi human rights activists, who have accused the Crown Prince of hypocrisy.
But the move has been warmly received by Western politicians. James Cleverly, the Foreign Secretary, Jake Sullivan, the White House national security adviser, and Robert Jenrick, Mr Aslin’s MP, all praised the Crown Prince for his “efforts” and “work”.
The deal comes after Joe Biden, the US president, held a controversial meeting with the Crown Prince in Riyadh this summer at which they exchanged a “fist bump”.
The meeting was widely perceived as an attempt to give the Saudi ruler legitimacy and draw a line under the Khashoggi murder, as the US sought Saudi support in tackling the energy crisis triggered by Russia.