UK risks blackouts in winter if it cannot import energy from Europe

Threat of power cut of 10 hours in coldest snap as gas and electricity shortages grip Continent

BRITAIN’S power supplies risk running short for 10 hours this winter if it is unable to import power from the Continent, according to the latest forecasts from leading energy analysts.

LCP explored the “very possible” scenario that Europe will not be able to meet Britain’s electricity needs this winter due to its own shortages. That could mean power supplies failing to match demand for 10 hours, it said, rising to 29 hours if ministers had not already stepped in to keep coal-fired power plants open.

LCP’S analysis contrasts with National Grid Electricity System Operator, which said in a provisional forecast published in July electricity supplies are at risk of running short for only six minutes this winter.

Unlike LCP, however, National Grid’s analysis assumes that interconnectors with Europe are able to provide up to 5.7GW when Britain needs it. Critics questioned that assumption, given the stress on the European system. National Grid is set to give a fuller outlook soon.

LCP’S analysis does not necessarily mean blackouts will occur, as in times of stress National Grid ESO steps in to try and balance the system. But if its efforts fail, National Grid would be “required to take drastic action and disconnect customers, such as energy intensive industries, from the grid,” LCP warned.

The analysis highlights the risks to the electricity system this winter due to gas shortages caused by Russia’s war on Ukraine, as well as droughts affecting hydropower and nuclear outages. France has been importing power from Britain because of outages on its nuclear fleet, while Norway warned it may have to curb exports due to falling hydropower reserves.

Chris Matson, partner at LCP, said: “As Europe baked during this summer’s heatwave, it was simultaneously sowing the seeds for further pain this winter. As a result of the extreme droughts and the lack of water that is hitting hydroelectric systems in key interconnector markets like Norway, coupled by the issues we are seeing in France with their nuclear reactors, there are significant doubts about the availability of electricity coming into GB from the Continent which is critical to our security of supply.”

Electricity traders are already factoring in tight supplies this winter, LCP warned, with forward prices reflecting shortages of “up to 70 hours”.

Britain has been preparing for a potentially difficult winter. The Government asked coal-fired power plants that were due to close this September to stay open to help with power supplies during winter. National Grid ESO is also bringing in measures in which households could be paid to use electricity outside of peak hours. Britain’s reliability standards allow for up to three hours each year when power demand exceeds supply. When that happens, National Grid steps in to balance the system, such as by turning down the voltage.

A National Grid ESO spokesman said: “In early autumn we will publish a full winter outlook that will be based on verifiable market data as well as extensive engagement with stakeholders, including system operators in other countries, to ensure our analysis is as robust as possible.”

‘As Europe baked during this summer’s heatwave, it was sowing the seeds for further pain this winter’