The winning formula: less rage, more restraint

After his defeat in 2020 the key question for Donald Trump is what he can do differently this time to win. The answer is already becoming clear. He plans to be less belligerent, more forward-looking, with an increased focus on policy rather than rhetoric. It will be a more restrained Mr Trump in 2024.

Rages that alienated many suburban women voters last time, and ultimately lost him the election, will be contained. For the same reason, he will not rejoin Twitter.

Instead, he will seek to explain the “America First” agenda in more depth, and why it would make independent voters better off than they are now.

The new, less aggressive candidate that he plans to be was on view at a rally in Latrobe, Pennsylvania, at the weekend. There, Mr Trump still railed against Left-wing Democrats, calling them “communists”.

The press were still “the enemy of the people” and the 2020 election was still “rigged and stolen”.

But he talked about these subjects less than he used to, and not with the same venom. Instead, over two hours, there was a more teleprompter-driven focus on what he had done while in the White House and what he would do next time, including making America energy independent and reducing petrol prices.

It is notable that Mr Trump is once again being advised by Kellyanne Conway, his successful campaign manager in 2016.

On Monday, she appeared on Fox & Friends, one of Mr Trump’s favourite shows, having just talked to him beforehand. Ms Conway said the “way to win” in 2024 was laid out in the postscript to her recent book Here’s the Deal. In that, she outlines a more positive and unifying approach than 2020, writing: “As I’ve told President Trump, elections are about the future, not the past.”

To be successful he must “articulate and explain” the policies of America First. “People want a fighter, and not to simply fight with others, or for a narrow cause ... a fighter who fights for them,” Ms Conway wrote. By “them” she meant the American people as a whole.

To simply attack Joe Biden would be “short-sighted”, she wrote. “If we solely blame his unfitness on his mental acuities, we are excusing his policy decisions.”

Instead, Mr Trump should calmly skewer Mr Biden for squandering energy independence, failing to tackle crime, the chaotic Afghanistan withdrawal, and emboldening Russia, China and Iran.

If Mr Trump can stick to Ms Conway’s script, and not alienate voters with internet tirades, then the path back to the White House is clear.