Kremlin signals Kherson retreat with a TV chat
As ‘General Armageddon’ talks of reverse in south, Putin may be preparing Russia for a taste of defeat
It was impossible for a man of Mr Putin’s vanity to bear the bad news, just weeks after he declared Kherson to be a part of Russia
He will probably pull forces out of Kherson ... there will be more terror inflicted on civilians to hide how his plans have turned to ash
On Russian state television last night, the scene was played on a loop. General Sergei Surovikin, the commander of Russia’s forces in Ukraine, says he believes the time has come to withdraw from Kherson. With his face in a deep frown, the man known as “General Armageddon” argued it would save Russian soldiers, who will be cut off if they do not retreat over the Dnipro river.
General Sergei Shoigu, the defence minister, grunted his agreement in a stage-managed chat that informed the Russian people of one of the worst setbacks their military has faced since the war began. Television anchors appeared visibly upset even reading the news.
However, nowhere to be seen in any of this was the man whose foolhardy ambition caused the mess: President Vladimir Putin. That is no accident. For months, he has deflected criticism of the war towards his generals, using them as convenient punching bags.
It would have been impossible for a man of Mr Putin’s vanity to bear the bad news to his people, given it was only weeks ago that he announced that Kherson had become part of Russia in a gaudy Kremlin ceremony.
He had joined hands on stage with the four-men appointed to lead the annexed regions of Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, Luhansk and Kherson, leading them in a boisterous chant. One of those men, Kherson chief, Kirill Stremousov, died yesterday in mysterious circumstances.
Mr Putin was seen yesterday on television but he was touring a hospital, basking in the approval of doctors who told him they had everything they needed.
Some commentators have suggested the generals’ order of a withdrawal is a trap; inviting Ukraine to rush ahead incautiously. That is possible, but unlikely. Russia’s position on the Dnipro has been untenable for months. Military commanders moved the headquarters to the other side of the river some time ago. This decision was tactically sound, given the rate of advance of Ukrainian troops, but a major blow to morale for those left behind, unless they were sold on a Russian counter-attack to come. It didn’t come. It was never coming.
Instead, the Russians have been taking steps to abandon the area. They have set up a hodge-podge defensive line on the Dnipro’s south bank, using precast concrete pillboxes. Images on social media suggest these might be able to withstand small arms fire but tanks, heavy machine guns and anti-tank missiles will chew them up.
What happens next could indicate how and when this war ends. The defensive line Russia is rushing to put in place mirrors efforts in the Donbas, where the so-called “Wagner line” of concrete pyramids – designed to stop advancing tanks and other armoured vehicles – has been set up by the Wagner mercenary group.
Put to one side the military fact that the engineering aspects of both defensive positions look decidedly ropey and better thinking and more resources are needed to construct respectable obstacles, why would Putin seek to hold this geographic position, given his known desire to extend control to Odesa and up to Kyiv? It’s because he knows if he doesn’t make plans to hold on to something now, he is likely to end up holding nothing in the near future.
He will probably pull all of his forces out of Kherson city and back across the river before making a lot of noise about negotiations. Of course, this will be accompanied by more waves of terror inflicted on the civilian population, as a way of hiding from his domestic audience quite how quickly his plans have turned to ash.
A ceasefire now is not in Ukraine’s interests. It has the military advantage and an opportunity to harry Moscow’s retreating forces. Unless the defensive positions through which the Russians can pass are established correctly, this southern withdrawal could emulate the northern rout from Kharkiv of a few weeks ago.
Russian troops have not shown themselves to be proficient at soldiering since Feb 24. A rearward passage of lines, to give what they are now attempting to do its proper military title, is difficult even with the best trained and motivated troops.
Any ill-disciplined rush for safety now could unhinge the whole Russian lodgement in the south of Ukraine, and Crimea lies down there.
Once Ukrainian forces are in a position to threaten that jewel in Putin’s crown, it won’t be Surovokin and Shoigu we see looking ashen faced.