Triumphant siege end will reshape the war

After losing his only regional capital, Putin now has a decision to make: negotiate or keep fighting

Russia’s retreat from Kherson marks the end of the longest, hardest-fought and perhaps bloodiest battle of the war so far. And it will reshape the battlefield and the political space.

Russian tanks crossed the Antonovsky bridge into Kherson in the first week of the war, their tracks tearing across the tarmac before the Ukrainians blew the bridge up.

It was, at the time, a significant Russian victory: it was the first regional capital to fall to the invading army and it secured a crossing over the Dnipro river, dashing Ukraine’s hopes of using it as a line of defence and opening the road to Odesa. By capturing Nova Kakhovka upriver, they also secured fresh water supplies for Crimea. But yesterday’s withdrawal has turned much of that on its head.

Russia’s chances of marching on Odesa faded in the following weeks in a series of battles across the Southern Bug, the next big river after Kherson. Since late March, it has been clear that the battle for the southwestern coast has been indefinitely postponed.

The retreat recognises reality. Despite words from some Russian commentators about one day returning, the fact is that mounting an amphibious landing across the river without operating bridges will be almost impossible.

That also applies to the Ukrainians. Some have said Kherson could become a jumping off point for a march on Crimea, but the river – which is about 500 metres across at Kherson and widens to miles at other points – is too big an obstacle to cross easily.

Yesterday is likely to mark the end of significant manoeuvre warfare in the south of Ukraine. The river will become a static front line, running as far upstream as the village of Vasilevka in the Zaporizhzhia region.

Both sides will take advantage of the shortening of that relative security to move men and material to the eastern fronts. The next big offensive battles are likely to occur in Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk and Luhansk. But that doesn’t mean Crimea is secure.

Ukraine will now be in range of key supply roads running out of the occupied peninsula. The Russians are likely to fire back across the river to harass Ukrainian troops and extract revenge for their defeat. The future of the peninsula’s water supply is unclear, but probably safe for now.

The inlet of the north Crimean canal is on the Russian-controlled left bank of the river and there is no obvious way for the Ukrainians to dam it without crossing themselves.

The political blow is also significant. Russia will try to spin the disaster at home as a Dunkirk-like miracle that denied Ukraine a victory – even though the Ukrainian objective was to force them out by making logistics impossible.

But there is no hiding the fact Russia has lost the only regional capital – and the largest city other than Mariupol – that it succeeded in capturing.

Ukraine will hope yet another decisive victory will convince sceptical Western allies that Russia can – and should – be defeated on the battlefield rather than negotiated with.

But some US officials have said they hope the aftermath of the battle will provide a lull in which diplomacy might again become possible. Moscow is more opaque.

Perhaps it will convince the Kremlin that the time to talk – and make meaningful concessions Ukraine could actually entertain – has come.

But over the past few months, Vladimir Putin has fallen victim to his own propaganda. There is every reason to believe he intends to fight on.