Europe acts as the spoilt child of the free world while America picks up the tab
Is it any surprise that US officials are growing frustrated? They see a continent all too eager to free-ride on their dime
Another lucky escape. The US didn’t vote for a fresh slate of isolationists in its midterm elections and Ukraine’s war of liberation can go on. But isn’t it pathetic that something so critical to the security of Europe should be decided by whether or not some obscure, teeth-baring rage merchants can hang onto their seats in Congress? And yet that is the way it must be, unless and until Europe takes responsibility for itself.
The US has given more military, humanitarian and financial aid to Ukraine than all of Europe put together, including the UK. For now, that will continue. But in spite of Kyiv’s remarkable successes, there are signs of fatigue in Washington. It’s not just the vocal strand of isolationist Republicans who pledged to end the “blank cheque” and ensure that “not another penny” goes to Kyiv. It’s not just the wobbly “progressive” Democrats, 30 of whom recently signed a letter calling for negotiations, only to withdraw it when their colleagues became angry. It’s also, according to US papers, an emerging split with the Biden administration.
The clearest signs so far are comments made by the US general, Mark Milley, who suggested this week that Kyiv ought to “seize the moment” over the winter months to seek out “diplomatic solutions”. The New York Times reports that Gen Milley wants Ukraine to consolidate its recent gains through peace talks, claiming that there is otherwise no end in sight to the war, with Russian troops digging themselves into trenches on the left bank of the Dnieper river. This would require President Zelensky to end his prohibition on sitting down to talks with President Putin.
Thankfully, despite the occasional addled message sent by President Biden, the White House disagrees. Those suing for a quick peace in Ukraine always present themselves as the grown-up, strategic thinkers who will deliver us from nuclear war. Yet they are never able to explain how their strategy would actually achieve peace or ultimately avoid years of instability, further cost and the constant risk of escalation by an emboldened Moscow.
In fact, now is the time for Kyiv to pursue its advantage, which it is doing energetically. This week, Russian troops were sent scurrying back over the Dnieper river, which they had crossed with such fanfare a few months ago. In doing so, they lost control of Kherson, the only regional capital they had captured and a city regarded as the gateway to Crimea.
The Ukrainians initially advanced cautiously, fearing mines or a boobytrap set to blow up the river’s enormous hydroelectric dam. But as they pushed further and further forward, it became clear that this was a retreat, perhaps even a rout, as tens of thousands of Russians raced to cross the river and avoid getting trapped on the wrong side. Yesterday, the Ukrainian flag was once again hoisted in Kherson to chants of “ZSU! ZSU!” – the initials of the Ukrainian army. In the past six weeks, Ukraine has pushed the Russian frontline back by 36km (22 miles). A few months ago, this was thought impossible.
The victories have hardened opinion in Ukraine. Iuliia Osmolovska, a former Ukrainian diplomat who now works at the Globsec think tank, said Ukrainians are in the mood to fight for “the very last inch of our soil” and they think victory can be won “within the year”. “We believe we can win this war,” she said. “We don’t need Russia to settle this problem now; we just need ourselves and our Western partners.”
Who can confidently say she is wrong, after everything that has happened? And what will cost more, in terms of bloodshed, instability and treasure: a decisive Ukrainian victory within the year, or a half-baked peace deal allowing Moscow to regroup, save face and sow more discord?
After all, Putin is besieged by hawks who blame him for failing to wage war effectively enough, rather than coming under any pressure to make peace. Just over a month ago, he “annexed” four regions of Ukraine, including Kherson, and implied that he would defend Russia’s sovereignty over them with nuclear weapons (so much for that threat). Then, at the behest of Moscow’s most outspoken chauvinists, he launched a barrage of missiles attacking electricity and water infrastructure across Ukraine, despite having claimed Ukrainians as his brothers. Are these the actions of a man who can seriously sit down at a table and thrash out a lasting peace deal? Is this even a man whose words mean anything anymore?
All of this should be obvious, but even if it isn’t in the US, it should be blindingly clear in Europe. This is happening on our doorstep, not Washington’s. Yet, to date, while the US has spent $52billion helping to secure Europe’s eastern front, we have collectively stumped up less than half that figure. The UK may be the second-biggest contributor, but we are using the wrong yardstick to measure our commitment. Europe should be carrying most of the burden itself.
Yet if American support falters, you can bet European cash won’t fill the gap. Quite the opposite, Europe’s support would also fall. Just this week, Hungary managed to block an €18billion EU aid package intended for Ukraine, Germany’s FDP is insisting that further German aid must stick within debt limits, and our own Government is reportedly going soft on defence spending. Is it any wonder if American voters wonder what on earth is going on? Why should they have to pay billions for our security while we quibble over EU budgets, nurses’ pay and defence cuts?
Relieving the burden on the US would be good for Europe not just because it would show that we can grow up and take responsibility for our Continent; it would also serve our interests. We need strong American leadership in the rivalry with China, which is ultimately the bigger threat to the free world, and in the development of secure supply chains for high tech industries. As Afghanistan showed, we do not need a war-weary US resenting its growing list of global responsibilities, inclined to scale them down and retreat from the world.
Ukraine’s success has reminded the free world of why our values matter. But it has not yet prompted a sufficiently serious revaluation of Europe’s priorities or underlined the need to take charge of our own defence. We are happy to pat ourselves on the back because defence spending went up by a few decimal points and then carp about the populist “crazies” ruining American democracy.
Yes, of course the US has its problems. But ask yourself this: is a mature democracy one that spends billions on defending freedom from despotic threats or one content to free-ride on the largesse of its allies? In the family of the world’s democracies, it is Europe who is the spoilt child.