Missile fallout forces Nato to consider its options

Nato has several options at its disposal after an errant rocket believed to have been fired from Russia reportedly hit member-state Poland, killing two people.

Nato’s 30 members could simply decide to invoke Article 4 of its founding treaty, which allows it to bring any issue of concern, especially related to the security of a member country, to the table for discussion by the North Atlantic Council. Since Nato’s creation, in 1949, Article 4 has been invoked half-a-dozen times, including by Turkey.

Eight Nato members – Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania and Slovakia – invoked the article when Russia invaded Ukraine in February.

Triggering Article 4 does not guarantee the alliance will take action, but it is a significant step in intensifying discussions between members. To avoid all-out confrontation with Moscow, the alliance could increase arms deliveries to Ukraine or bolster air defences along the Ukrainian border.

Artis Pabriks, Latvia’s defence minister, said last night that Nato could provide air defences to Poland and “part of the territory of Ukraine”.

Jens Stoltenberg, Nato’s Secretary General, warned at the start of the war in Ukraine that the alliance would defend “every inch of Nato territory”.

Gitanas Nausėda, Lithuania’s president, reiterated the sentiment after yesterday’s incident.

Members could decide a more aggressive response is appropriate and seek to invoke Article 5, which is specifically about the collective defence of member states and stipulates that “an armed attack against one or more of ” the allies “shall be considered an attack against them all”. In other words, a full-blown military response is warranted.

All is likely to hinge on Russia’s explanation of the incident near Poland’s border with Ukraine. The missile killed two people near Przewodow but did not hit either military or critical civilian infrastructure. The Russian defence ministry has denied responsibility. In the unlikely event member states do invoke Article 5, it could be that the alliance waits until President Joe Biden, who is in Indonesia, has returned to the US, or is at least in US airspace, before any response.

So far the US which, as the alliance’s largest member, has 10,000 personnel stationed in Poland, has said it is waiting for the facts.

“It’s often said that an attack on a Nato ally could trigger an Article 5 response, but Nato officials really stress that Article 5 is a conversation, not a machine,” cautioned Patrick Tucker, an editor at Defense One.

“An Article 5 response can take all sorts of forms. It’s not a WWIII button.”

Yaakov Kedmi, a Russian-israeli diplomat, yesterday said Ukraine could be preparing to call for a no-fly zone over western parts of Ukraine that border Nato countries. Enforcing a no-fly zone would put Nato-backed air forces at risk of direct conflict with Russia and experts have previously said such a move would be unlikely.