Missile smoke and fog of war may take long time to clear
Accidents becoming more common owing to age of Soviet-era weapons used by Ukraine and Russia
The missile that killed two people in Poland was launched from a system used by both Russia and Ukraine, analysis showed yesterday. Western intelligence appeared to point the finger at Ukraine for the blast in Przewodów – a village four miles from Poland’s eastern border.
Images from the crash site suggested the missile was fired by a Soviet-era S-300 air defence system, a long-range surface-to-air launcher produced in the 1970s. Experts said fragments resembled motor sections of 5V55series rockets used by the system.
Given the range of the rockets and proximity of the crash site to the Ukrainian border, experts said it appeared likely that the missile had been fired by Ukraine in an attempt to shoot a Russian missile out of the sky.
The age of weapons being used by Ukrainian and Russian forces means that accidents are becoming common.
However, some experts said there remained a slight possibility Russia could have launched the missile.
Despite S-300s being designed for air defence, Moscow’s military has been known to deploy them in a surface-to-surface capacity because of its dwindling supply of long-range precision weapons.
However, the 5V55-series have a range of around 95 miles, meaning Russia would only have been able to reach this location by firing from the border of Belarus.
“It could have been fired defensively by the Ukrainians trying to intercept incoming Russian cruise and ballistic missiles or offensively as a crude ballistic missile, as Russia has been doing a lot in recent months. Either way, it would appear accidental,” Justin Bronk, a researcher at the Royal United Services Institute, said.
As to how an air defence missile ended up missing its target, an analyst said the S-300s often drift off course.
The systems use radar to lock on to their targets, with a radio link used to update co-ordinates during flight.
“We have previously seen them off course at various times in the conflict,” Justin Crump, of Sibylline, an intelligence and geopolitical risk firm, said. “No equipment is infallible; fire enough missiles and launch or guidance failures will happen. Obviously with the amount of weaponry being used in Ukraine, this risk was always there,” he added.
“As older stockpiles are being used, or as systems wear out due to stress of use, accidents are increasingly likely.”
During its biggest missile attack on Ukraine, Russia targeted energy infrastructure in the west of the country, increasing the chances of an accident. The Dobrotvir plant, which supplies Lviv, is only 25 miles from Przewodów.
Publicly, Poland insists Russia is responsible for the strike, with a certain subtlety. Warsaw has refused to blame Moscow, but in private meetings has stressed the deadly blast would not have happened if it hadn’t launched cruise missiles at Ukraine.
The Poles last night still hadn’t announced the results of their investigation, with President Andrzej Duda telling reporters his government had reached the same conclusion as Nato. Kyiv last night requested access to the site to “hand over evidence of the Russian trace”.