Progress at Cop27 ‘too slow’ to limit warming to 1.5C

THE slow pace of negotiations at the Cop27 summit means the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5C is out of reach, climate scientists have said.

The goal is expected to be included in the final agreement from this year’s climate talks in Egypt, which are due to finish this weekend, after over-running their official closing time last night.

But experts said the goal was no longer feasible and more focus should be given to technologies that remove carbon from the atmosphere and reverse warming. Last year’s talks in Glasgow were heralded as keeping the goal of 1.5C alive, with the promise that countries would bring new plans to cut their emissions to Egypt.

But only 29 have brought updated targets, amid the challenging global context of the war in Ukraine and the cost of living crisis.

Dr Stephanie Hirmer, a senior researcher in climate compatible growth at the University of Oxford, said: “While everyone knows the 1.5C target is off the table, it is not openly discussed in official sessions.” John Kerry, the US climate envoy, said that some countries have pushed to drop the aim of limiting warming to 1.5C in this year’s talks, a tactic that critics say will give them leeway to pollute.

Dr James Dyke, from the University of Exeter’s Global Systems Institute, said: “I struggle to understand how anyone can continue to argue that 1.5 is still alive.

“I certainly don’t believe any politicians involved in Cop27 have any intentions of implementing the transformative policies that 1.5 now demands.”

The most recent report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change found that the world was likely to emit enough carbon to hit 1.5C of warming within 10 years.

The prospect of overshooting the target for limiting warming has increased discussion over carbon removal and other technologies that might rapidly cool the planet.

A draft text that emerged on Thursday called for developed nations to go “net-negative” by 2030, which would most likely involve carbon removal technology such as direct air capture. The Egyptian hosts were scrambling to achieve a deal last night amid warnings from the UK, EU and Canada that they could end without a consensus.

“I would be astounded if international action was ramped up fast enough to avoid 1.5C global warming being exceeded within the next decade or two,” said Prof Richard Betts, from the University of Exeter and the Met Office. “So it’s now about damage limitation. We should still work much harder to reduce emissions urgently to keep further heating of the planet as low as possible, whilst urgently adapting to the changes we’ve already caused.”