The Daily Telegraph

There is no easy route to peace in Ukraine

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Just as the Ukrainian winter bites, could diplomatic channels between Russia and the West begin to thaw? That certainly appears to be the hope of Olaf Scholz, the German chancellor, who spent an hour on the phone with Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, yesterday. The call came after Mr Scholz set out a dovish vision for de-escalation in which the pre-war architectu­re of peace is restored, a status quo ante in which the common security of both Russia and its Western-leaning neighbours is magically guaranteed. It is an appealing, but surely naive, aspiration.

Indeed, the Kremlin’s response to indication­s from President Joe Biden that he might be prepared to talk with Putin showed why reaching a durable peace agreement remains extraordin­arily difficult. The West’s refusal to recognise “new territorie­s” seized from Ukraine makes negotiatio­ns harder, it said. The Ukrainians will almost certainly not accept any deal that sees swathes of their territory formally handed over to Russia.

Even a ceasefire holds risks. This conflict has shown that pauses in fighting can be opportunit­ies for Moscow’s ruthless dictator to regroup and relaunch, one of the reasons why the Foreign Secretary, James Cleverly, is cautious. In an interview in today’s Telegraph, Mr Cleverly says that it is difficult to say whether genuine peace talks could happen in the next year. The UK Government has been consistent in its view that this is ultimately a matter for Ukraine to decide, in any case.

There is immense credit in this approach, which has helped to galvanise the positions of less stalwart allies on the Continent. The provision of Western arms has enabled Ukraine to secure victories against Russia that few thought possible at the start of the war. Putin’s forces’ failures on the battlefiel­d have left him resorting to despicable attacks on civilian infrastruc­ture. Ukraine, resilient in the face of these horrors, evidently believes that it can retake Crimea, illegally annexed in 2014.

Many will hope that this is possible. It would certainly make any other dictator think twice before launching an unprovoked assault on a neighbour, imagining that the West would do nothing. Even so, this is still a profoundly delicate moment. Some fear that the total collapse of the Russian position might result in the Kremlin making good on its nuclear threats, although others consider this to be bluster.

One thing is certain: Ukraine should not be bounced into negotiatin­g with Putin before it is ready. This war cannot go on forever. But as the UK Government rightly realises, hard talking and military strength have proved the best platform for peace talks in the past. They can do so again today.

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