The West’s opportunity to weaken Xi Jinping

With Beijing distracted by internal revolt, a window has opened to strengthen our position in the region

The easing of China’s draconian zero-covid policy might bring some welcome relief to the country’s much-oppressed citizens, but it has also dealt a considerable blow to President Xi Jinping’s image as their omnipotent ruler.

He has, for the past three years, sought to portray Beijing’s uncompromising response to the Covid pandemic as one of his greatest achievements. Measures that have seen whole cities completely locked down for months on end, with citizens detained in factories and government compounds, have meant that China – at least if the official figures are to be believed – has experienced one of the lowest death tolls, with just 5,200 deaths out of a population of 1.4billion, which equates to three Covid deaths per million. This contrasts with official figures of 2,400 per million in Britain, and 3,000 per million in the US.

Xi’s personal pride in the success of his Covid policy was evident when he addressed the ruling Communist Party’s central committee in October, when he hailed the “all-out war” the authorities had waged against the virus. In the same speech he cited his other main achievements as restoring calm to Hong Kong after the “chaos” of the pro-democracy protests and his relentless campaign against Taiwan’s independence.

The surprise Covid announcement therefore represents a major concession by the Chinese president, made doubly important by the fact that it was the product of the overwhelming opposition the restrictions have generated throughout the nation.

With Covid infections on the rise once more, the Communist authorities’ initial instinct was to reimpose the controls that have in previous times resulted in tens of millions of Chinese being subjected to lockdown at any one time, led to a significant decline in China’s economic growth, caused a spike in unemployment (especially among young people) and a collapse in property prices. On this occasion, though, rather than submitting to the will of their authoritarian leaders, Chinese citizens took the unprecedented action of rebelling against their powerful elites.

In one of the more high-profile examples, workers at the Foxconn factory in Zhengzhou, which manufactures iphones, staged a mass breakout over fears that they might be locked up inside the complex indefinitely if Covid was detected among some members of the workforce. The fear of Covid restrictions overcame even the fear of China’s ruthless leaders.

We may never know, in the secretive world of China’s politburo, whether Xi was personally responsible for initiating the Covid U-turn, but coming so soon after his appointment as “president-for-life’’ at October’s Communist Party Congress, such a radical change in direction is not only uncharacteristic, it also demonstrates that China’s autocrats are much more vulnerable than they seem. They have overreached in their efforts to impose their will on their opponents, whether at home or abroad.

If they can be made to rethink their approach to major domestic policy, there is no reason why they cannot be persuaded to reassess their aggressive posture on global issues like Taiwan, a point Western policymakers would be well-advised to take on board as they consider their options for containing Beijing’s ambitions for world domination.

Indeed, one of the more laudable achievements of Boris Johnson’s tenure in Downing Street was last year’s signing of the Aukus pact between Britain, America and Australia to assist Canberra in building a fleet of nuclear-powered submarines. The pact’s primary aim is to enhance security in the Indo-pacific region by containing China’s aggressive military conduct, with Beijing claiming control over disputed territory and navigation channels.

But while Aukus represents an important step in Western strategy, there is much more that can be done to make the pact even more effective – an issue Ben Wallace and the other Aukus defence ministers will be discussing when they meet this weekend.

Apart from providing Australia with nuclear submarines, there are plans to expand the original agreement to cover areas including cyber, artificial intelligence and the development of hypersonic missile systems, all of which will be critical to countering China’s military strengths.

Another important element under discussion is expanding the alliance to include other states that are prepared to stand up to Beijing, such as Canada and Japan. As a member of the Five Eyes intelligence-sharing alliance, Canada’s admission should be a formality, especially as it took the lead in confronting China over its illegal activities when it detained Meng Wanzhou – the “Princess of Huawei” – over fraud charges. Meanwhile, Australia is involved in detailed discussions with Japan about including it in the alliance.

Ultimately, with the Chinese Communist Party facing its sternest test since the 1989 Tiananmen Square protests, we may never have a better opportunity to let Xi Jinping know there are limits to his authoritarian conduct.