Europe told to prepare for worse winter next year over gas supply

Bloc warned of shortfall if Kremlin cuts supplies as countries struggle to refill storage sites

EUROPE must prepare for an even tougher winter next year as Russian gas supplies dwindle, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned.

Fatih Birol, executive director of the IEA, said the EU was “off the hook” for this winter, but added: “The crisis is not over. Next year may be much more difficult than this year.”

He said the bloc could face a gas shortfall of 30bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2023 if Russia turned off the taps completely and countries struggled to refill storage sites.

It came as Mr Birol and Ursula von der Leyen, European Commission President, outlined new figures highlighting the impact of the Kremlin’s pipeline cuts.

Russia exported just 60bcm of gas to Europe this year, less than half the 140bn total in 2021, with officials warning this could fall further next year. In addition to more cuts, the IEA warned that shipments of liq- uefied natural gas (LNG) were “exceptionally tight”, putting further strain on supplies.

This could become particularly acute if China eases its draconian Covid restrictions next year, driving up energy demand.

The energy body also said temperatures had been unusually mild this winter, limiting heating demand. It warned there was no guarantee this would happen again next year.

The mercury plummeted across the bloc yesterday, with sub-zero temperatures and low wind threatening a short-term crunch in Britain.

National Grid put two coal plants on standby this morning amid concerns about energy shortages, before later cancelling its request.

France’s electricity network RTE requested emergency help from the Grid yesterday morning and halved electricity exports through one of its interconnectors to the UK between 8am and 9am.

Mr Birol said that without measures already taken, the EU would be facing a shortfall of 60bcm in 2023.

However, he said that the predicted 30bcm shortfall was still a “big number”.

The IEA outlined a number of measures required to help avert a crisis next winter, including faster improvements in energy efficiency and faster deployment of renewables.

It also called for well-designed communication campaigns to help change consumer behaviours, as well as a shift to more heat pump use. The EU has already set out a number of proposals to help improve energy security and reduce reliance on Russian fossil fuels amid what it describes as “blackmail” by President Vladimir Putin.

However, it is struggling to secure an agreement by member states on plans to launch joint gas purchasing and roll out a cap on wholesale prices.

Ms von der Leyen warned: “Every day of delay comes with a price tag.”

The EU chief added that the bloc would look at creating a new sovereignty fund for the major investments that are needed to improve energy security.