Safe Sunak halted free fall ... but that’s not enough to win
‘Show, not tell,” is the mantra that Downing Street has adopted for Rishi Sunak’s strategy to win back voters and turn around flailing Tory fortunes in the year ahead.
Behind the black door of No10, the feeling is that a fed-up British public wants to see less political drama and more delivery from its leader.
Since taking office, the Prime Minister has gone to great lengths to distance himself from the flamboyant presentational style of Boris Johnson, and this week Mr Sunak used his first major speech in his post to paint himself as dull but competent, pledging to “only promise what I can deliver”.
He said: “People don’t want politicians who promise the earth. They want government to focus less on politics and more on the things they care about.” And, so far, he has succeeded in stabilising Tory poll ratings, which slumped under Mr Johnson and went into free fall under Liz Truss.
But the polling remains dire as Labour holds a 21-point lead. Pollsters are doubtful Mr Sunak’s low-key approach will turn things around.
More in Common, which conducts focus groups across the country, has found voters are frustrated and underwhelmed by Sunak’s start in No10. Luke Tryl, its UK director, warned that people in the North and Midlands who backed the Tories in the 2019 Johnson landslide “haven’t warmed” to the new Prime Minister.
However, he concedes that Mr Sunak has done better in winning back some of the more liberal Conservatives in the South – those who supported David Cameron.
“This suggests that while a safe-pair-of-hands approach from Sunak will save the Tories from absolute meltdown and avoid a 1997 [defeat], it won’t be enough to save places like the red wall or, without something drastically changing, to prevent a Labour victory,” he said.
“To do that he’ll need some sort of game-changer, and a sense that things aren’t just ‘a little bit less worse’ but an active feel-good factor in the country and among public services.”
A focus group last month in Swindon North, a Labour target constituency, summed up the apathy many voters feel towards the Prime Minister.
“He’s been conspicuous in his
‘To prevent a Labour victory Sunak will need some gamechanger ... an active feel-good factor’
‘He’s not good at the vision thing ... at turning his spreadsheets into a narrative that the public can invest in’
absence in the news. We’ve not seen Rishi giving his point of view or coming across as strong as I would like,” said Andy, a 57-year-old estate agent.
Kathryn, 30, a stay-at-home mother, added: “I don’t think that he’s done anything amazing so far. I’m not really fond of him.”
Mr Sunak has focussed on stabilising the Government and restoring discipline within the Tory party after a chaotic 2022 that saw two changes of leadership.
He has managed to instil calm, but has announced few policies beyond firefighting economic instability, widespread strikes and meltdown in the NHS.
Prof Sir John Curtice, one of the country’s leading pollsters, said the Prime Minister is taking the right approach but has struggled to land his message.
“He’s not good at the vision thing in general and in particular he’s not good at turning his spreadsheets into a narrative that the public can understand,” he said.
“Keir Starmer at least has learnt the art of taking a strapline. That’s what Sunak doesn’t seem to be able to do.
“It’s not that he’s pushing in the wrong direction, but in the end he’s got to find a way of communicating what he’s about and giving people the sense that actually there’s something there they’d want to invest in.”
Patrick English, associate director at pollster Yougov, said the damage done to the Tory brand last year meant Mr Sunak is facing “a hugely difficult long road”.
“Right now our sense is the public has simply had enough of the Conservatives in government,” he said.
“We haven’t seen any signs of that changing in recent months even though Sunak does bring a much more stable, much more solid offer to the table.
“As a Government you have the capacity to effect change now so you can start counting those chips as the election rolls in and they’re not doing that at the moment.”
Mr English added that while the Prime Minister’s speech hit the right notes there wasn’t “anything in there for the public to get really excited about”.