Defence is now Russia’s priority as it awaits counter-offensive
RUSSIA does not know where Ukraine will launch an anticipated “major counter-offensive” and is dividing its efforts across two locations, the Ministry of Defence (MOD) has said.
A British intelligence report highlights a general shift in posture by Russian forces from offensive to defensive across the front line in Ukraine, except around Bakhmut in Donbas.
The report said: “The way Russia has worked on improving defences suggests commanders are highly likely preoccupied with the potential for major Ukrainian offensive action.”
The last large Ukrainian offensive was in November when Volodymyr Zelensky’s forces recaptured Kherson city. Military analysts have said Ukrainian commanders may have wanted to build up a supply of hi-tech weapons from their Western backers before launching another offensive.
British intelligence suggest that Ukrainian offensives will soon resume.
According to the MOD, Russian commanders were focused on building defences around Zaporizhzhia in southern Ukraine, where a breakthrough would threaten supply lines between Rostov in Russia and occupied Crimea, and also in Luhansk, in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas which the Kremlin has pledged to hold at all cost.
The MOD said: “Deciding which of these threats to prioritise countering is likely one of the central dilemmas for Russian operational planners.”
Although Russian forces have adopted defensive tactics along the front line in Ukraine, they have been on the offensive in Bakhmut since August.
Russian online sources said Kremlin soldiers were now close to capturing the town of Soledar which some analysts have said is important for the battle for Bakhmut.
Rybar, the Kremlin-linked military blogger with more than a million subscribers, said: “The Russian armed forces have broken through the first and second lines of defence, and the battle formations of the third are under threat.”
Ukrainian officials have refuted this and soldiers say they still control the area. Western analysts have said that the town holds little strategic value.