China would like peace to return in Europe – but only on its own terms

THAT the director of the CIA chooses to use the word “confident” to describe America’s assessment that China is considering arming Russia should set alarm bells ringing throughout Ukraine and the West.

British security professionals use Whitehall’s “probability yardstick” to express a level of confidence in the information they are imparting. They have even attached figures to it.

Intelligence analysts say the likelihood of something happening is “remote” if they consider it to have less than a 5 per cent chance of occurring.

An event is deemed “unlikely” at 25-35 per cent. A “realistic possibility” occurs between 40 and 50 per cent, and between 55 and 75 per cent it is “likely or probable”. The scale then goes to “highly likely” (80 to 90 per cent) before arriving at “almost certain” (above 95 per cent).

Mr Burns’s use of the word “confident” will be assessed here as being much closer to probable than possible. It would fit neatly into the “likely or probable” category of a 55 to 75 per cent chance of happening.

The second reason why Mr Burns’s warning is alarming is because of what it says about Beijing’s calculus on the emerging global balance of power.

Western officials insisted this week there was no evidence that China was supplying Russia with lethal aid but it would be a big step were Beijing to change that policy.

It would also ask questions of how far the West, with arguably far greater economic dependencies on China, would be willing to go in response.

Xi Jinping, China’s president, will have noted how long it took Ukraine’s international supporters to come to a consensus about action, particularly regarding economic sanctions.

He may well have calculated that the West, Europe especially, will not be similarly united against China. Or, even in the face of such unity, he may calculate his country is strong enough to withstand any sanctions that may be forthcoming.

There is another, direct military, concern. Beijing insists that a country’s sovereignty is inviolable and says it would never interfere in the governance of another state.

Many security officials consider that position laughable and posited only as a smokescreen to keep international attention, and the US navy’s pacific fleet, away from Taiwan.

Nevertheless, China expects that policy to be honoured and knows any change that it adopts over Ukraine will dent the power of its argument over non-interference in any future action regarding Taiwan.

So, just as China wants the global snow globe to settle and for peace to return to Europe, albeit a peace in Beijing’s economic favour which has nothing to do with respect for Ukraine’s borders, it knows any decision to arm Russia will have far-reaching consequences.