Xi and Putin have declared a new Cold War
Britain and the West must wake up to this new threat and prepare to defend our values
Our global order is in deep trouble. It is now more protectionist and more divided than at any time since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Our post-cold War complacency has seen autocratic states multiply in recent years. Now, China and Russia are openly pioneering a competing vision – a post-west world order that we cannot afford to ignore.
Many commentators missed it, but President Xi Jinping’s decision to send China’s most senior diplomat to Russia in the week of the anniversary of Vladimir Putin’s barbaric invasion of Ukraine marked a turning point; a line in the sand.
When one of the five permanent members on the UN Security Council illegally invades another state, another permanent member then refuses to condemn that invasion, and the other three offer no collective strategy to check this blatant breach of international law, then humanity has entered a dark, unpredictable chapter.
Russia’s belligerent behaviour is not isolated. Putin and Xi have pursued a shared objective of seeing the West, especially America, weakened. Both feel threatened by an international rules-based order that calls for greater freedoms, democratic accountability and transparency. And both pursue an agenda of expanding their sphere of influence by military means if necessary.
After years of increasingly testing the West’s tolerance to check errant behaviour, this China-russia axis has moved from openly exploiting the fragility of our international standards to upending them. Tacit Chinese support for Russia’s adventurism (which may soon include replenishing Russian arms in Ukraine) confirms a strategic partnership that has been incubating for years. And with many states still engaging financially with Russia, Putin’s actions are effectively going unpunished on the world stage.
It was once hoped that Beijing’s meteoric economic rise would lead to China embracing international norms. Instead, Xi has sought to dominate the South China Sea and present authoritarianism as a plausible alternative to Western democracy. It is leveraging its colossal economic might to ensnare dozens of countries into long-term debt through its One Belt One Road policy, thus neutralising criticism of China and dominating critical global markets such as rare mineral mining used in the battery and technology industry.
In short, a stark fact has come into view: we are in a new Cold War. Our world is splintering into two spheres of influence with dozens of states progressively obliged to take sides.
What makes this new chapter all the more dangerous is the erosion of the security architecture and back-channel communications that prevented the previous Cold War from turning hot. Last week, Putin announced that Russia will withdraw from the New START treaty, meaning that after five decades of limiting nuclear stockpiles we may be entering a new arms race. China is tripling its holdings of nuclear weapons over the next decade. Iran now appears to be nuclear-capable and North Korea probably has a nuclear warhead and a ballistic missile. Unchallenged, Kim Jong-un will probably be able to marry the two components and threaten Europe and the US mainland in the next year or so. Taken together, the nuclear threat is probably higher now than at any time since the end of the Second World War.
This places the urgency of resolving the Ukraine conflict in a fresh context. How confident and front-footed we are on the war today could easily set the tone as to how this new period plays out. We must rekindle our old Cold War statecraft and not be spooked by Putin’s rhetoric about deploying tactical nuclear weapons. This lost us valuable time as we slowly plucked up the courage to offer serious hardware in the form of missiles and tanks.
The UK Government should acknowledge we are in a new Cold War. It would place a fresh perspective and greater clarity in how we advance our defence posture, protect our trade and work with like-minded nations to once again begin to robustly defend our values and standards.
We are experiencing a major turning point in global politics and entering a period arguably more volatile than the second half of the 20th century. Once again, there’s a leadership role for Britain to play – beginning with the reality check: a page has been turned, and a new dark era has begun.
The Rt Hon Tobias Ellwood MP is chair of the Defence select committee.
Colonel (Retd) Hamish de Bretton-gordon OBE is a former commander of UK and Nato CBRN Forces.