Protocol deal must put the Union first
Rishi Sunak has taken a big political gamble in trying to resolve the remaining elements of the Brexit deal with the EU. With less than two years to the next election he could have parked the issue and returned to it if he was voted back into office, or left it to the next government. But many were rightly asking whether the political impasse at Stormont could be ignored for much longer, and it is to his credit that he has sought to find a solution.
The PM has to an extent been driven by April’s 25th anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement that ended the Troubles in the province. It is rumoured Joe Biden might travel to Belfast for the celebrations and the Government was anxious to sort out the political impasse beforehand. A successful outcome has even been linked to Washington’s willingness to pursue a post-brexit trade deal with Britain.
But while the UK and the EU have apparently agreed a way to ease trade problems caused by Brexit, there is no guarantee that it will have the desired impact on the province’s politics. Here, the power-sharing assembly remains suspended because the DUP objects to the way the protocol leaves them semi-detached from the rest of the UK. This remains the central issue. This is not about simpler customs arrangements but the integrity of the Union. Mr Sunak has arguably blundered by pushing for a deal with Brussels without keeping the DUP abreast of what is happening. How far his deal meets their concerns will only become clear when the details are published.
But the unionists will need time to consider the implications and not be bounced by the PM or by Brexiteer Tory MPS. The UK-EU land border on the island of Ireland was always going to complicate matters and so it has proved. It has not been helped by the way Brussels has insisted on checks of goods not even destined for the single market.
Of course, Mr Sunak can always get what he agrees through Parliament with Labour support, assuming he has a formal vote, which is not clear. But if there is a revolt on his own benches he risks a loss of credibility of the sort that brought down his three predecessors. Moreover, if the DUP refuses to support the deal then one aim of the renegotiation, the restoration of the Stormont processes, will have foundered. However, if the gamble pays off, the PM could emerge with a renewed authority.
As Mr Sunak meets Ursula von der Leyen today for what is clearly a choreographed conclusion to this process, the PM needs to be guided by one overriding principle: the future of the Union.