Sunak refuses to back Case to keep Cabinet Secretary job
Messages reveal fear and frustration took over at the heart of government as scale of Covid outbreak became clear
RISHI SUNAK yesterday refused three times to say he had confidence that Simon Case would remain in post until the next election, amid a growing backlash against the Cabinet Secretary’s pandemic-era Whatsapp messages.
The Prime Minister was last night asked to comment on speculation that Britain’s most senior civil servant was preparing to stand down, but initially said only that he “continues to support the Government’s agenda”, including on small boat crossings.
It came as Labour sources said Sir Keir Starmer would sack Mr Case if he won the next election.
The 44-year-old has been accused of “naivety” after a tranche of messages obtained by The Daily Telegraph showed he mocked people forced to quarantine in hotels during the pandemic and described Mr Sunak as “bonkers”.
He also criticised “bouncing Boris” Johnson for being too optimistic about the economy during the pandemic.
The criticism in Whitehall has been led by other senior civil servants, who believe his leadership has been “weak”, a source said.
The episode has reportedly left Mr Case considering resigning from the role, with some close to him suggesting he could take up a second career in academia.
Asked again about the controversy in a press conference yesterday, Mr Sunak claimed he “hadn’t actually seen any of the messages”.
But he praised Mr Case’s record in government, adding: “I’m very grateful to him for that and I look forward to working with him for a very long time to come quite frankly.”
Cabinet secretaries typically remain in post in the period before and after a general election to oversee the transition between administrations.
Mr Case’s allies last night insisted that he had no intention of resigning and that he was pushing ahead with plans for high profile events in the summer.
THE full force of the pandemic hit the UK in March 2020, but inside the Department for Health and Social Care contingency planning for an unprecedented public health crisis had been underway for weeks.
China had issued its first public health alert on Dec 30, 2019, after a cluster of patients with respiratory problems was noticed in Wuhan province, and by January ministers and officials were discussing the possibility of the outbreak spreading to Europe and possibly the UK.
As the weeks passed there was mounting frustration over Downing Street’s reluctance to engage. No10 was buoyed by the UK’S recent departure from the EU and did not want Boris Johnson, the then prime minister, making gloomy proclamations about diseases.
All that changed with the first UK deaths in early March. On Monday 23rd, Mr Johnson would deliver his historic address to the nation, giving the British people a “very simple instruction” to stay at home.
A small number of Whatsapp groups involving Matt Hancock show how the Government responded to the growing threat. However, the vast majority of Mr Hancock’s Whatsapp groups, which have been passed to The Daily Telegraph, have few or no messages covering the month of March.
One of the first people to ask questions about Covid-19 was Mr Hancock’s aide Gina Coladangelo (now his partner) who was part of a group chat involving Mr Hancock and his special advisers.
Gina Coladangelo
[shares Mail Online article “Heathrow passengers arriving from coronavirus epicentre claim they were barely checked on landing”]
I am assuming that PHE [Public Health England] have this already under control...?? [23/01/2020, 10:57:33]
Emma Dean [special adviser]
Completely [23/01/2020, 10:57:55]
Several hours later another civil servant mentioned the virus in the chat.
[Redacted]
Should I be worried? [23/01/2020, 15:43:33]
[Redacted]
About this virus [23/01/2020, 15:43:41]
Jamie Njoku-goodwin [special adviser] You might want to cancel you romantic holiday to Wuhan... [23/01/2020, 15:44:30]
Two weeks later, with Covid now firmly rooted in Europe, there seemed little prospect of keeping it out of the UK.
Gina Coladangelo
Briton among five new coronavirus cases in France
[shares link to Sky News article “UK coronavirus victim infected five more Britons at French ski resort”] [08/02/2020, 09:34:51]
Gina Coladangelo
Coronavirus Briton in Majorca tests positive for coronavirus
[shares link to Sky News article “Fourth UK coronavirus case confirmed as evacuation plane lands in UK”] [09/02/2020, 09:50:28]
James Bethell [health minister]
Mallorca! Damn, there goes the fallback plan. [09/02/2020, 12:12:29]
Mr Hancock, the then health secretary, spent the last week of February working on an “action plan” with his counterparts in Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales. In a Whatsapp group designed for quick communication between No10 and the Department of Health (DOH), Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer, Patrick Vallance, the chief scientific adviser, and Dominic Cummings, the Downing Street policy chief, discussed claims that a vaccine could be developed within weeks.
Dom Cummings
This report credible? [shares link to Mail Online article “Israeli scientists say they are just WEEKS away from developing a vaccine which will beat coronavirus”] [29/02/2020, 08:45:05]
Patrick Vallance [Chief Scientific Adviser]
Short answer is no. They have a vaccine for one thing (which hasn’t yet been shown to work) that they want to adapt for this virus and humans. They would then need to go through safety testing, small scale trials in people and then larger efficacy trials. So it may all work out but it is not going to be ready in weeks. All of these approaches will take many months at the very and most optimistic best. Remember we still don’t have a vaccine that we know works for Zika yet despite lots of work over years
[29/02/2020, 08:50:14]
Chris Whitty [Chief Medical Officer]
There will be a lot of good vaccine candidates that enter early clinical trials in the next few months. The rate limiting steps are late clinical trials for safety and efficacy, and then manufacturing. For a disease with a low (for the sake of argument 1%) mortality a vaccine has to be very safe so the safety studies can’t be shortcut. So important for the long run. [29/02/2020, 08:50:55]
A few minutes later, Sir Patrick responded.
Patrick Vallance
Agree, existing drugs best things to try for this outbreak. Accelerate vaccine testing where we have good candidates for future, and prepare for manufacturing capacity for longer term. [29/02/2020, 08:56:51]
Downing Street media advisers wondered how best to tell the public what might be coming. As they prepared to publish Mr Hancock’s action plan, they discussed giving advance briefings to a select group of national newspaper editors and specialist journalists. In the first trial of a format that would soon become familiar to every household in the land, a carefully choreographed press conference would follow, with the prime minister at a podium flanked by scientific or medical experts, in this case, Sir Chris and Sir Patrick.
James Slack [PM’S spokesman]
Following the PM call, we were thinking the following:
A conference call with editors tomorrow pm (with Matt/chris/patrick) which is strictly background only. This will be a general request to all for us to work together and deliver responsible messages in a sober way. On Tuesday, in advance of the publication of the plan, we hold a lock in with health/science and political editors in the Cabinet Office. Journalists can read the plan and ask Qs of Chris/patrick. To Dom’s point on the call, the intention is that, from the moment it is first reported on social media and elsewhere, it is done in full understanding of the facts. This has worked well in the past.
Once the embargo is lifted, we will host a press conference with the PM, Chris, Patrick in order for journalists to get on the record answers and show both joined up working and grip. Appreciate this is a big ask on people’s time when you’re all so busy, but if we can get the journalists in a good, responsible place now, it will make all of our lives easier going forwards. Hope that makes sense. [01/03/2020, 15:56:39]
Dom Cummings
yup [01/03/2020, 15:58:05]
Dom Cummings my suggestion for visual of the press confernce is PM flanked on either side by cmo/cso and they obv answer most of the Qs with PM intro and closing [01/03/2020, 15:59:22]
That evening, Mr Cummings sent another message to the group.
Dom Cummings
My impression is media do not expect china style response nor do they think it possible – but reasonable people will look to singapore as a competent english-speaking state that tried to learn from SARS etc and is ahead of us in the cycle – they can read the documents etc – for q&a we’ll need answers to why we are doing stuff differently to there, if/when we do... [01/03/2020, 22:23:36]
Some weeks earlier, Sir Chris had privately warned that as many as 820,000 people could die, according to Mr Hancock in his memoir, Pandemic Diaries. Although this apocalyptic projection was steadily downgraded, in the months that followed, modelling “reasonable worst case scenario” infection rates and fatalities remained a feature of pandemic policy planning. Shocked by the potential scale of the threat, Downing Street and the DOH began trying to work out how to change public behaviour to cut transmission.
James Slack
Morning. Today programme is raising the issue of whether people should stop shaking hands. Do we have / should we have official advice from on that? [02/03/2020, 07:12:01]
Dom Cummings
I’ve stopped! [02/03/2020, 07:29:13]
Matt Hancock
Evening standard also asking same question. Useful to get a medical view. But there’s also a practical issue if we say yes then Boris and I are going to have to stop handshaking too [02/03/2020, 07:33:36]
Chris Wormald [permanent secretary]
David halpern makes the point that if we do this we should give people something else to do instead. Bowing or elbow bumps or something. [02/03/2020, 07:57:24]
James Slack
The media’s point will be that if you have to wash hands before and after shaking hands, why not just advise to stop shaking hands? (The media are experts on these matters, of course...)
[02/03/2020, 07:58:52]
Matt Hancock
Like this?
[shares Tweet from now-suspended account] [02/03/2020, 08:01:30]
Dom Cummings
Exactly — unless there’s a reason NOT to stop, people will be confused if we say don’t worry I think
[02/03/2020, 08:03:01]
Dom Cummings
Think people will work out alternatives themselves in weird ways, better for us not to offer fodder for comics!? [02/03/2020, 08:04:06]
Lee Cain [No10 communications chief ] Yes! I’m not keen on matt and Pm bumping elbows. We should just offer very straight advice on important things issues [02/03/2020, 08:07:53]
Patrick Vallance
It’s a no regrets easy thing to say. Not much evidence it makes much difference but no harm in saying about hand shaking [02/03/2020, 08:24:05]
Chris Whitty
Agree
[02/03/2020, 08:40:54]
Later that morning the discussion turned to “reasonable worst case scenario” planning.
Dom Cummings
What is the % probability of the reasonable worst case scenario happening? [02/03/2020, 11:50:06]
Dom Cummings
Should old people have a flu jab on basis that if they get flu that makes them more vulnerable to Corona, so better to avoid that? [02/03/2020, 11:54:50]
Patrick Vallance
For % probability of RWCS [reasonable worst case scenario] we don’t have a calculated figure and can’t give one on the data we have. But Chris and I both think that looking at Wuhan so far the RWCS is relatively low probability, say 1 in 5 chance. But that is an impression not a calculation. Re flu jabs for the elderly it is too late for this season, most of them should have had it and it is too late to have any real effect in those that haven’t [02/03/2020, 12:09:54]
With the Easter holidays around the corner, the hope was to keep schools open until the end of term. However, exam season loomed. Senior figures were beginning to think about how that might be affected. There were also sensitive discussions about what to do if the NHS ran out of staff and beds. If push came to shove, could unqualified volunteers help in intensive care units? Could families be shown how to care for their own sick and dying?
Dom Cummings
We got a view on GCSES and A levels? [05/03/2020, 12:10:40]
Chris Wormald
Many! DFE [Department for Education]/nick gibb [schools minister] are thinking about and talking to ofqual and the exam boards about arrangements and contingencies. I think the main issue in schools is the extent to which schools and parents vote with their feet regardless of what govt says. [05/03/2020, 12:18:04]
Jamie Njoku-goodwin
This is good – and helpful to point out to people if anyone is trying to score political points at all. The public is on our side. [05/03/2020, 13:23:41]
Day by day, the disaster moved closer to home. Terrifying scenes in Italy, where hospitals were overwhelmed by gasping Covid victims and distraught doctors were having to turn away the dying patients were fuelling a sense of doom in the UK. Rumours swirled that Parliament might be forced to close for five months. A nervous public was beginning to stay away from restaurants, pubs and theatres – the start of a disastrous hiatus for the hospitality industry. Warning that insurance would become an issue, Mr Cummings told Mr Hancock that businesses were “starting to scream” about cancellations. The DOH hastily registered Covid 19 as a “notifiable disease,” making it easier for companies to claim compensation. As people began to panic buy, the Government started talking to supermarkets about how to maintain supplies. Officials wondered whether the Government was being seen to do enough.
Chris Wormald
Have DEFRA/CCS set up the summit with supermarkets/amazon/ocado/etc we were talking about yesterday? [06/03/2020, 07:07:33]
Matt Hancock
I had an exchange with George Eustice [then environment secretary] yesterday. He has stood up the food security group and is working on best way to do it.
But I think worth us finding out how ambitious it’s going
[06/03/2020, 07:32:01]
James Slack
I think we can expect the hacks to ring round supermarkets today to check for levels of contact, plans etc. [06/03/2020, 07:38:53]
Matt Hancock
Chris can you check in with DEFRA Perm Sec.
Grateful for a No10 spad could reinforce importance & urgency of this to DEFRA. I didn’t get the impression they saw it as super urgent
[06/03/2020, 07:43:17]
Dom Cummings
I’ve pushed with sedwil [Sir Mark Sedwill, then Cabinet secretary] [06/03/2020, 08:05:52]
Chris Wormald
Spoken to defra – sounds like they may have more in place than we’ve heard so far. Have emphasised that this all needs to happen now, this morning and that it needs to show demonstrable grip in public [06/03/2020, 08:16:37]
Chris Wormald
Not my business but personally think we should be asking the supermarkets and amazon to design the solution for us rather than government telling them what to do. Have told defra that too. [06/03/2020, 08:18:25]
Matt Hancock
That’s Eustice’s view too. Key is we are clear about the solutions we need to help people, esp the vulnerable, stay at home [06/03/2020, 08:19:27]
Next on the list of concerns was a possible shortage of ventilators and enough trained staff to operate them.
Dom Cummings
1/ Given the likely load on NHS hospitals will far exceed supply, dont we need a mass program to train people to treat Corona patients who need intensive care unit , but not using normal/official ICU tools & resources? This will involve explaining that people treating others will obviously not have current professional licensing standards…? Even just authoritative videos on NHS England — that we can get PM to share on Facebook etc — ‘How to look after an elderly relative at home’… 2/ How many ventilators will we be short and are we putting out bids now to incentivise 24/7 production in UK? [07/03/2020, 10:18:59]
Dom Cummings
Re my 2 above, do we have forecasts on demand for medical oxygen and how to meet? If not then we need a Skunkworks set up immediately asking for help from relevant parties...?
[07/03/2020, 10:29:53]
Matt Hancock
Re 2 – [Redacted] & [Redacted] at NHS have this work. It’s tied to 1 because you need both the kit and trained operatives [07/03/2020, 10:34:59]
Chris Whitty
There is quite extensive modelling by NHSE which I am sure they would be very happy to run through with you. [07/03/2020, 10:35:05]
Chris Whitty
As Sofs says kit and staff need to be married up as being on a ventilator is dangerous [07/03/2020, 10:36:50]
Chris Whitty
In a major wave, if one happens. capacity will be overtopped (globally) and the need will be for triage
[07/03/2020, 10:38:28]
The next day there was increased nervousness about the way the public would react to news about France banning large gatherings.
Matt Hancock
FYI France has just banned gatherings of over 1000 and said no kissing or handshakes. I imagine we will get some questions over why that’s different to our approach [08/03/2020, 20:05:26]
James Slack
I think we’re heading towards general pressure over why our measures are relatively light touch compared to other countries. Also why we aren’t isolating/screening people coming back from Italy. We’ll need to explain very calmly that we’re doing what actually works.