Areas prone to flooding will suffer 25pc more damage

FLOOD-PRONE areas of the UK will suffer 25 per cent more damage even in the best case scenario for climate change, new modelling shows.

Parts of South Wales, the North East and south-east England will be worst hit by increased rainfall if there is 1.8C of global warming, according to researchers from the University of Bristol and Fathom, a flood modelling firm.

Overall the forecast annual increase flood damage – defined as physical damage to property and businesses – could be kept below 5 per cent at 1.8C, which is only expected to be met if global climate commitments are honoured.

If not, modelling suggests flood damage could rise to 13 per cent at 2.5C of warming, and 23 per cent at 3.3C.

“Although the most optimistic climate scenarios see only modest increases in flood losses at a national level, these new data demonstrate how this conceals dramatic variations across the country, with some places seeing large changes and others very little,” said Professor Paul Bates, lead author of the study and chairman of Fathom.

“This is a result of changing patterns of future rainfall, river flow and sea level rise, and this leads to the regional differences we predict.”

Mr Bates said flood risk was closely related to population density, and existing flood defences and infrastructure.

Cities such as London, Cardiff, Manchester, Glasgow and Edinburgh are looking at possible damage increases of more than 25 per cent.

Prof Bates added: “If you build flood defences, those percentage increases could be changed.”

The study is published in the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences.