Russia ‘lacks firepower and men’ for territorial gains

RUSSIA will need to begin a mandatory mobilisation and receive a flood of weapons from China if it is to make any major territorial gains in Ukraine this year, a US intelligence assessment has concluded.

Avril Haines, the US director of national intelligence, told a Senate committee yesterday that the beleaguered Russian military lacks the ammunition and troops necessary to sustain its current level of fighting and may be forced to shift to a hold-and-defend strategy, dragging out the war.

Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, “appears to be focused on more modest military objectives now,” said Ms Haines, appearing before the Senate Intelligence Committee as officials released their annual threat assessment report.

“If Russia does not initiate a mandatory mobilisation and identify substantial third-party ammunition supplies, it will be increasingly challenging for them to sustain the current level of offensive operations in the coming months,” she said.

“Consequently, they may fully shift to holding and defending territories they occupy. In short, we do not foresee the Russian military recovering enough this year to make major territorial gains.”

Nevertheless, Putin “most likely calculates that time works in his favour,” she added.

The Russian leader likely believes that prolonging the war, with intermittent pauses in fighting, “may be his best remaining pathway to eventually securing

‘It will be increasingly challenging for Russia to sustain the current level of offensive operations’

Russian strategic interests in Ukraine, even if it takes years.”

The report notes that Moscow wants to avoid direct conflict with the US, but that setbacks in Ukraine could prompt Moscow to escalate the war.

It added: “There is real potential for Russia’s military failures in the war to hurt Putin’s domestic standing and thereby trigger additional escalatory actions by Russia in an effort to win back public support.”