Sorry, but junior doctors don’t deserve a pay increase

Junior doctors want a pay rise. Well, don’t we all! The difference is that these doctors are asking for a whopping 35 per cent more from already strained government budgets. What their unions don’t want you to know is that their pay deal is already pretty generous.

Just how much a junior doctor earns is one of those “how long is a piece of string?” questions, because a “junior” doctor actually means every doctor that isn’t a consultant, specialised doctor, or GP.

While their earnings might start at about £29,000 for a really junior doctor in England with a shiny new stethoscope trying to keep out of the way of matron, the same category also includes very experienced specialty registrars. With three to eight years of service, these particular “juniors” could be on just under £60,000, before extras.

To claim, as the British Medical Association (BMA) is doing, that junior doctors are earning £14 an hour or that the barista in the Pret next door to their hospital in the heart of London is paid more is a misdiagnosis.

Especially because we shouldn’t overlook the other perks of the job beyond the immediate pay packet, either. Junior doctors have an incredibly generous pension arrangement, with their employer pitching into a defined benefit scheme. Admittedly, there are tax issues for those who exceed their lifetime pensions savings allowance of £1million, but that’s not a bad problem to have. And it’s not one you’ll get as a barista.

As much as we all admire the skills of someone who can steam out a good Ristretto, there is nothing like the assurance of a career for life or the status that comes with just “being a doctor”. I know status doesn’t pay the bills, but presenting all doctors as penniless is just plain misleading.

Let’s not forget, either, that a great many of these doctors will go on to establish glittering careers in the NHS and also lucrative earnings from working in private medicine.

The BMA would have done better to stick with the comparability argument than to plead poverty. Since 2011, train drivers have seen their cash wages rise by 39 per cent, the fire services 21 per cent, and higher education teaching staff a little over 6 per cent. Inflation has run at a cumulative 30 per cent.

For doctors, whose pay has largely stagnated, this has meant the real value of their wage packets has fallen. It is probably fair for the doctors to claim that they need a rise of 35 per cent to make up for inflation since 2008. But even then, should they get it?

The economy is in a fragile state. Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, in his previous role of health secretary, saw off a junior doctors’ strike over their contract in 2016. I doubt he is in the mood to stump up the £2billion the doctors pay demand would cost – which is not a one-off sum. It is £2billion this year, next year and every other year, contributing to pay cost inflation.

It is a broad problem for the NHS. Each 1 per cent increase in staff pay costs the organisation almost £1billion a year. There is no magic money tree to pay for these increases. Last year’s nurse settlement was not supported by higher government spending. The NHS had to cut back its digital plans to pay for it.

What is at stake is the management of the economy and the NHS, not just now but in the future. Settling high wage demands will send costs ricocheting through the system for years.