University applications to reach million mark in 2030
ONE million young people will apply to UK universities in 2030 as demand rises by almost a third, Ucas has said.
The university admissions service said it expects to see a surge in applications as the number of UK 18-year-olds in the population rises and demand from overseas students grows.
There were 767,000 applicants to UK higher education courses in 2022.
Competition for top universities will become even more fierce over the remainder of the decade, Ucas warned.
Ben Jordan, head of policy at Ucas, said: “As we have already begun to see, offer rates, particularly at the most selective institutions, will likely reduce … We may even see some institutions increase their entry standards to manage increasing applicant numbers.”
Ucas has revised down its earlier forecast, which had predicted applications reaching one million in 2026.
It follows a slight decline in demand for the academic year starting in September, which Ucas blamed on the cost of living and geopolitical uncertainty.
Ucas also said that there had been a “slight recalibration” in demand for subjects such as nursing, for which there was a huge growth in applicants during the pandemic.
However, it said it still expects a surge in application numbers in future years. The number of UK 18-year-olds in the population is expected to grow to almost 900,000, up by around 200,000 from 2020.
Meanwhile, Ucas has predicted a 60 per cent increase in international student applicants, driven by a 76 per cent increase in the number of non-eu applicants to almost 200,000.
China will continue to be the largest non-domestic market, with more than 50,000 applicants in 2030, Ucas forecasts. It expects demand from mature students will remain flat.
There were 44,000 applications from people aged 35 and over in the 2022 admissions cycle.
Ucas said it was concerned that rising overall demand creates a risk that the most disadvantaged students who are “at the lower end of the attainment spectrum” will be squeezed out of higher education.