Ministers warned of sharp rise in immigration by election

Influx of workers and students at odds with pledge to cut numbers, says Home Office

THE Home Office has privately predicted a further sharp rise in immigration by the next election, with an influx of another 1.1 million foreign workers and students projected in 2024 unless ministers take action.

The Daily Telegraph can disclose that a document sent to No10 last year warns about the projected increases in net migration and sets out policy options to meet its 2019 manifesto pledge to bring “overall numbers down”.

The 12-page analysis forecasts that work and study visa applications could increase by as much as 40 per cent in the three years to 2024/25, with more than 700,000 overseas students and 320,000 skilled workers arriving in that year. It would come as the Tories headed into an election where the UK’S post-brexit control of its borders will be a major campaign issue.

It comes on top of a record 504,000 net migration posted last summer and expert forecasts that net migration could rise further to reach a record 700,000 for the year ending December, and potentially even 997,000 when the official figures are published in two weeks’ time.

While the warnings from officials are about legal migration, Rishi Sunak has made tackling illegal entry into the UK one of his five priorities.

Today he will tell fellow leaders at the Council of Europe that tackling small boats is not just a British issue.

He will say illegal migration is putting unbearable pressures on countries throughout the Continent and that they need to “co-operate across borders” to tackle the humanitarian disaster caused by illegal immigration.

Yesterday Suella Braverman, the Home Secretary, warned that as well as preventing “illegal migration”, the Government “must not lose sight of the importance of controlling legal migration as well”. She also warned that an “unexamined drive towards multiculturalism” combined with identity politics was a recipe for disaster.

Mrs Braverman has been pushing for tougher controls on legal migration and is believed to favour raising the salary thresholds for skilled workers, which are set at £26,600. That is 20 per cent below the median UK salary of £33,280.

There are thought to be divisions in the Cabinet on how to deal with migration, with some ministers relaxed about an influx of foreign workers, believing it can help boost the economy and others determined to cut the number.

The document, entitled Net Migration Briefing August 2022, warned that there was a “limited window” to make changes as any new policies would “take time to implement”.

‘The Government must not lose sight of the importance of controlling legal migration as well’

It is understood the analysis by Home Office officials was prepared during the Tory leadership campaign ready for any incoming home secretary in September. Sources said it was sent to No10 but a spokesman for Mr Sunak denied he had any knowledge of it. “It was before the current PM’S time,” said a source.

It set out 12 “policy levers” that could be used to bring down net migration including capping immigration routes, scrapping some specialist visa schemes, increasing the skilled workers’ salary thresholds required to enter the UK and restricting the rights of workers’ or students’ dependents to come to the UK.

However, the only policy close to fruition is a ban on one-year masters students bringing in dependents, according to Government sources. The report presaged potential Whitehall

battles over a possible crackdown. “There is strong pressure from across Whitehall to significantly increase further issuing visas to groups who are likely to add to net migration (e.g. care workers, broadband workers, some types of students),” it said.

“However, to be confident of achieving the manifesto commitment to reduce overall numbers, consideration will be needed as to whether some brakes on the usage of the [points based system for skilled workers] are required.”

While it forecast Ukraine, Hong Kong and Afghan visas would decline, it predicted a more than doubling in student visa applications from 300,000 in 201920 to 720,000 in 2024-25, and rise from 150,000 work visas to more than 300,000. Even those figures may be an underestimate based on actual numbers already published.

The report admitted “robust” forecasts could not be made about net migration – the number entering minus the number leaving the UK – but suggested that there would be “upward pressure” on immigration and post-pandemic “uncertainty” over whether as many Britons as anticipated would be tempted to emigrate post-brexit.

It offered two options, one to “pursue actions” to reduce net migration with a “collectively agreed policy change” to achieve that goal by 2024.

“This could include capping some routes, changing thresholds (skills/salary), restricting the rights of dependants, and/or reducing the attractiveness of the graduate visa,” it said.

The second would see ministers argue the UK had “control” over immigration, and was “making choices” to offer safe and legal routes to refugees, and support the Labour market, universities and NHS.

“A strong narrative will be required to explain the rationale, especially if the labour market begins to contract,” it warned.

The report then conducts a detailed analysis of the pros and cons of different policies, based on their effect on numbers and the wider economy.