The three weapons that could defeat Russia for good

With the right tools, Kyiv can take back Crimea this year, destroying Moscow’s cruel ambitions forever

Be in no doubt: the war in Ukraine could be over this year, with Russia defeated. All that is necessary is that we in the West give the Ukrainians the weapons they need to win the fight. As things stand, a lack of clarity on our objective, particularly in the White House, is preventing effective action.

These are the weapons we should send, and this is how they would help the Ukrainians win.

First is the Army Tactical Missile System, the ATACMS, which can be fired from the Himars rocket launchers we have already sent to Ukraine. Currently the Ukrainians’ Himars are armed with the Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System (GMLRS), which can hit targets up to 90km (56 miles) away. But ATACMS can reach 300km (186 miles). A single ATACMS goes in the same slot that takes six GMLRS.

The ATACMS would change the war, exposing every square inch of occupied Ukrainian territory – including Crimea – to precision fire. We should also send the Ground Launched Small Diameter Bomb, another longer-ranging weapon, from existing stocks rather than waiting for new ones to be produced specially.

The Crimean peninsula is the decisive terrain of this war; Bakhmut is comparatively unimportant. As long as Russia occupies Crimea, Vladimir Putin controls the Sea of Azov and threatens Odesa. The naval base of Sevastopol, on Crimea’s southern tip, is home to Russia’s Black Sea fleet and allows Moscow to control access by Ukraine to the world’s oceans and shipping routes. Crimea is also an important logistics hub for Putin’s forces in the south of the country, as munitions, materiel and reinforcements can move into the peninsula and then onward to the frontlines of battle.

A peace in which Russia continues to hold Crimea is a defeat for Ukraine: the nation will not be able to rebuild itself if it is effectively kept under siege. This would have implications across Europe, as millions of refugees might be unable to return home.

But there are grounds for optimism. Volodymyr Zelensky and his generals have pulled off a remarkable feat. There are now three brigades equipped with Western tanks and other weapons, and several more with original Ukrainian or captured Russian armour, ready to mount an attack. These must now be accompanied by engineering support that can get them through Russian defences, and backed up by heavy mobile artillery.

As this force is applied, Ukrainian air power needs to be increased, by giving them F-16 fighters and the training and support needed to operate them. Given the Russian air force’s vast superiority in numbers, this might seem an enormous task. Yet Russian air power has turned out to be much less effective than we thought. One thing’s for sure: we consistently overestimate how long it takes for the Ukrainians to learn new techniques and employ new weapons.

It still won’t be a quick or simple matter to set up the systems needed to operate a fleet of Western jets: the obvious answer here is to bring in contractors, who can deliver the vital maintenance and other essential support, and do so quickly. The Ukrainians will soon be able to use their own planes and Western-supplied ones to provide cover for their ground counter-offensive. It will not take them long, if given the right tools, to push back against Russian missile bombardment and start to control their own skies.

This brings me to the final key weapon system we should be sending now: the Gray Eagle drone. This will allow the Ukrainians to deliver battlefield air support without risking scarce pilots and jets. The Gray Eagle can carry four Hellfire missiles, each of which can destroy a tank or other armoured vehicle.

With these capabilities in place, Ukraine will be able to mount an armoured assault and cut the “land bridge” – the strip of coastal territory linking Russia and Crimea. With ATACMS, the advancing Ukrainians will be able to strike the Sevastopol naval base and the Saky air base, and drive the Russians out. It might make sense to leave the Kerch bridges up for at least a while, as this will allow the Russians to leave. If, on the other hand, Putin uses the bridges to reinforce, they could be eliminated.

The Western tanks that have been supplied – the Abrams, the Leopard and the Challenger – are all excellent, but T-72s may still be the best fit for some groups. What the Ukrainians will not be doing, however, is mixing up different vehicle types within units: each unit will use a single type to simplify maintenance, rearming and so on.

With all this, it will be possible to push Russia out of Crimea. It can be done. And with the peninsula in Ukrainian hands, I do not believe there will be much desire in Moscow to fight on for the remaining parts of occupied Eastern Ukraine.

This could all be achieved this year, but only if we in the West agree that is what we want, and start acting like it.

Lieutenant General (Retired) Ben Hodges is the former commander of US Army Europe