Influx of 1.2m people to work, study or escape oppression
Net migration, which accounts for the number entering the UK minus those leaving, has hit a record high of 606,000, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
The surge has been fuelled by nearly 1.2 million migrants being granted visas primarily from outside the EU to enter the UK to work, study or escape conflict or oppression. The ONS estimated 557,000 people left the UK.
The resulting 606,000 for the year ending December 2022 is more than double the pre-brexit average of 200,000 to 250,000 and blows apart the Government’s 2019 manifesto pledge to bring down the rate of net migration from its then level of 245,000. The figure is lower than expected after ministers feared it could hit between 700,000 and 800,000, or even one million.
However, it is the same as the net migration figure for the year ending June 2022 after the ONS revised its estimates. While it had previously been reported as 504,000, it said an “improvement in methods” meant that the figure was actually also 606,000.
1. Emigration
This has returned to pre-pandemic levels after 557,000 people left last year, the ONS said. This increase from 454,000 in 2021 was largely driven by students now starting to leave.
Nearly half (47 per cent) of those who left were non-eu nationals, while 36 per cent, or 202,000, were from the EU. British nationals accounted for 17 per cent or 92,000.
Experts anticipate that net migration will fall as the number of students leaving the UK continues to increase and the number fleeing Ukraine and Hong Kong falls.
Ministers believe this trend – combined with this week’s crackdown on foreign students’ dependants – will result in net migration returning to pre-pandemic levels of 250,000 in the medium term of 18 months to five years.
However, it is likely to mean the Tories go into the next election with net migration at 500,000 and the potential of high net migration up until 2028.
2. Work visas
The number of visas issued to foreign workers and their families has nearly doubled in 12 months, from 276,500 to 488,000 in the year to March, Home Office data show. It is the most for at least two decades and more than double the pre-brexit average of between 150,000 and 180,000.
It comprises around 300,000 workers and 188,000 dependants, covering skilled jobs, NHS health staff, seasonal agricultural workers and inter-company employees.
With the end of free movement with the EU, they are mostly from outside Europe, with only 8.6 per cent of the visas going to EU citizens. Indians are the largest group (71,957) followed by Filipinos (22,158) and Nigerians (21,053).
The growth follows the liberalisation of the immigration system for foreign workers after Boris Johnson ditched Theresa May’s pledge to keep net migration below 100,000.
The new points-based immigration system has opened up half of all jobs in the UK to foreign workers, by lowering salary and skill thresholds for migrants.
The number of visas issued to foreign workers and their families has nearly doubled in 12 months
Foreign students brought a record 149,400 family members on visas with them in the year to March
3. NHS and care visas
These accounted for just under half (43 per cent) of all work visas, with 101,447 issued to workers in 2022-23. That represents a near trebling from 37,440 in only a year.
The surge is largely because of the expansion of the visa scheme for care workers and home carers. In the year to March, more than 40,000 people moved to the UK to work in care. In the previous year, it was just 113. Care workers and home carers made up two fifths of all Health and Care visas.
The health and care work visa is one where dependants outnumber main applicants – 109,042 dependants to 101,447. The visa is majoritively represented by Asians and Africans such as Indians, Nigerians and Filipinos. Combined, the two regions represent 96.3 per cent of all visas.
4. Student visas surge
The number of foreign students granted visas jumped by 20 per cent in a year, from 398,000 to 482,606, for the 12 months to March as part of the Government’s drive to attract overseas undergraduates and postgraduates.
Two thirds were from south and east Asia with only 4.2 per cent from EU countries, down from 5.3 per cent last year. India and China dominated with 138,622 and 100,642 students, respectively, followed by Nigeria (57,700) and Pakistan (27,800).
The surge has been partly fuelled by the new two-year graduate visa and rules allowing students on masters courses to bring their dependants with them. It has effectively given foreign students three years’ access to the UK for the price of a masters degree. The Government’s Migration Advisory Committee warned against the visa amid fears students and their families would remain in the UK on low-skilled jobs of little benefit to the economy.
5. Crackdown on dependants
A record 149,400 family members were brought into the UK with 482,606 foreign students who arrived in the year to March, a more than 10-fold increase in the past five years. It represented a ratio of 0.3 dependants for every one of the students who arrived in 2022-23, more than three times the ratio of 2020-21. There were more postgraduate Nigerian dependants than students granted visas, with 57,700 graduates bringing 58,000 family members with them.
This week the Government announced a crackdown barring all foreign students, except those on postgraduate research courses, from bringing in dependants, and banning students from switching to work visas before completing their studies.
6. Asylum backlog hits record high
The record asylum backlog raises a question mark over whether Rishi Sunak will hit his target to abolish “legacy” cases by the end of this year.
Home Office figures showed 172,758 people were waiting for an initial decision on their asylum application in the UK at the end of March 2023, up by 57 per cent from 109,735 at the end of March 2022 and the highest figure since current records began in 2010. The number of people waiting more than six months for an initial decision stood at 128,812 at the end of March, up by 76 per cent year on year from 73,207 and another record high.
Of these cases, 78,954 were legacy asylum applications relating to more than 104,000 people, which the Prime Minister pledged in December the Government would complete by the end of 2023. They relate to claims submitted by June 2022, when new asylum rules were introduced through the Nationality and Borders Act.
There were 75,492 asylum applications UK in the year to March 2023, the highest total for 20 years. Albanians were the most common nationality in 2022-23 applying for asylum with 13,714 applications, nearly 9,500 of which came from arrivals on boats crossing the English channel.
Just under half (44 per cent) of asylum claims last year were from small boat migrants, just over 1 per cent having received an initial decision, while over three quarters (78 per cent)
of all small boat asylum claims since 2018 were still awaiting a decision.
7. Net migration underestimated
Net migration peaked in the year to September 2022, said the ONS, after it recalculated its figures by including asylum seekers for the first time.
The changes meant net migration hit a record 637,000 in the 12 months to September 2022 before falling back to 606,000 in the year to December. The recalculation also meant the figure for June 2022 was increased from 504,000 to 606,000. For the years 2018 to 2021, the ONS said net migration had been underestimated by a total of 127,000.
The ONS also calculated that 143,000 people left in 2022 before the end of their one-year visas. These would previously have been included in the data, meaning net migration for the year ending December 2022 would actually have been 749,000.
8. Small boats
The number of migrants who arrived in the UK by legal means in 2022 was 25 times higher than the number who arrived in small boats. A total of 45,755 people crossed the Channel versus 1.2 million granted visas.
Some 5,946 crossed in the first four months of this year, just down on the 6,691 at the same point in 2022. Only 28 Albanians reached the UK, a fraction of the numbers last year. Afghans and Indians were the two top nationalities.
Indian migrants have one of lowest asylum success rates at 2 per cent, while it is 70 per cent for Afghans. Of the 2,520 initial decisions made on Albanians who crossed the Channel since 2018, only 10 were granted asylum – meaning 99.6 per cent were rejected.
9. Countries with most legal migrants
Indians accounted for nearly a quarter (23 per cent) of all migrants coming to the UK in the past year, with nearly 344,000 granted visas. Around half of the visas go to Indian students, but they also represent almost a third of NHS and skilled workers. Ukraine is the second highest, buoyed by the humanitarian visa scheme that has granted refuge to 200,000 since the war.
Hong Kongers fleeing the Chinese regime are also highly represented, with more than 36,000 taking advantage of the UK visa scheme.
Nigerians accounted for nearly 180,000 visas granted, the third biggest nation. Of these, some 124,500 were students and their dependants, with a further 21,000 coming as skilled workers.
Chinese and Pakistanis – all large student populations – claimed the last two places in the top five nations.
With Brexit ending free movement from the EU, the highest number of any European nation was France with just 10,460 visas, coming in 19th in the table.
10. Slump in removals
The number of foreign criminals and failed asylum seekers removed in 2022 was 38,000, the lowest number on record apart from the pandemic years of 2020-21. This is nearly half the peak of 71,000 in 2009.
The top-ranking countries were Romania with 7,279, Brazil with 3,091 and Albania with 2,510. Enforced returns – a subset of the total – were also at a record low of 3,860, down from an average of 11,000 pre-covid and a high of 21,425 under Tony Blair in 2004.
The Home Office figures also show that Britain has only deported 23 migrants to European countries under its post-brexit returns policy.
Some 40,208 of the asylum seekers were deemed inadmissible because they had travelled through a safe third country where they could have applied for asylum, of which 11,795 were given notice of intent for removal. However, only six were returned in 2022-23, down from 17 in 2021-22. Immigration experts say the rules are meaningless unless the Government has the co-operation of other countries to which to return them.