A blue day for some The Tory big beasts who are at risk of losing their seats
Jeremy Hunt is among 11 Cabinet ministers who could lose their seats in the general election, according to polling. Mr Hunt, whose South West Surrey constituency will cease to exist because of boundary changes, would lose to the Liberal Democrats in his new seat, a poll revealed earlier this year.
He would become the first Chancellor to lose their seat at an election – but he would not be alone. Other Cabinet ministers are predicted to lose their seats, along with Tory grandees including Sir Iain Duncan Smith.
In all, more than half the seats won under Boris Johnson’s leadership at the 2019 general election would be lost if the election was held now, according to a Yougov poll of 14,000 people carried out in January.
1. Victoria Prentis
The Banbury constituency held by Victoria Prentis, the Attorney General, has returned a Conservative MP at every election since 1922 – but it is one of the Blue Wall seats the Tories could lose. Despite having a majority of 16,813, Ms Prentis is predicted to lose narrowly to Labour. Reform UK would be a decisive factor, drawing in 7 per cent of the vote – enough to hand victory to Labour with 34.2 per cent, compared with the Tories’ 33.7 per cent.
Labour’s margin of victory would be even greater if the 14 per cent of Lib Dem voters decided to vote tactically to ensure a Conservative defeat.
2. Jeremy Hunt
The Chancellor has said he will stand in the newly created constituency of Godalming and Ash after South West Surrey is dissolved.
He has a majority of 8,817, but the Yougov poll predicts that the new seat will go to the Lib Dems, with 35 per cent of the vote to Mr Hunt’s 32 per cent.
There have been reports – denied by Mr Hunt – that he will stand down as an MP because he does not want to risk the humiliation of becoming the first sitting Chancellor to lose their seat.
He was facing a battle to hang on to his seat even without the boundary changes, having seen his majority cut from 28,556 in 2015 and then 21,590 thanks to Lib Dem gains.
3. Lucy Frazer
When the Culture Secretary’s South East Cambridgeshire seat is abolished at the election, she will stand in the new constituency of Ely and East Cambridgeshire, where she was predicted to lose to the Lib Dems. Ms Frazer won in 2019 with a majority of 11,490 over her nearest rival, the Lib Dem candidate – but the tables are expected to be turned this year, with Sir Ed Davey’s party gaining 33.6 per cent of the vote compared with the Conservatives’ 31 per cent. With Labour way behind on 21 per cent, it is again Reform UK, with 8 per cent, that may hold the balance of power. Since it was created in 1983, Ms Frazer’s constituency has only been represented by three different MPS – all of them Conservatives.
4. David TC Davies
The Welsh Secretary is another member of the Cabinet whose constituency will cease to exist when the election happens. He took his Monmouth seat from Labour in 2005 and has held it in four general elections since then, winning with a 9,982 majority in 2019.
Mr Davies will run in the new constituency of Monmouthshire in the next election, but is forecast to lose heavily to Labour. The Yougov poll suggested Labour will take 41 per cent of the vote compared with 33 per cent for the Tories, with Reform coming third with 8 per cent.
Even if Reform did not stand in the seat, the Conservatives would not be guaranteed to win because a small amount of tactical voting by Lib Dems would be enough to shut the Tories out.
5.Penny Mordaunt
The Leader of the House and former Tory leadership candidate may have boosted her popularity among party members with her sturdy sword-carrying at the Coronation – but that will not be enough to prevent her from being beaten by Labour, the poll predicted. The MP for Portsmouth North, who increased her majority to 15,780 in 2019, is projected to lose her seat, with 36 per cent of the vote going to Labour, 33 per cent to the Tories and a strong showing for Reform UK with 13 per cent. Without Reform, Ms Mordaunt would be likely to win. The seat is a swing seat, having been won by the outright victors in every general election since the 1970s.