FOREST READY TO MUSCLE IN ON THE ACTION
AUTOMATIC promotion? Forget about it. Unless you’re Fulham or Bournemouth, that race is run. Fulham were over the hills and far away months ago, propelled to the Premier League on a wave of ludicrous scorelines. The only remaining objective for Marco Silva’s side is to eclipse Manchester City’s record of 108 second-tier goals, set in 2001-02. Ninety down, 19 to go.
Bournemouth, who thumped Huddersfield 3-0 last weekend, have a six-point cushion and two games in hand which, coupled with an inconsistent challenge from below, is tantamount to an eight-length lead coming off the final fence.
Scott Parker’s side could pull a Devon Loch but, based on their masterful demolition of the Terriers, such an outcome looks far-fetched.
As for the play-offs, however, it’s a bunched sprint to the finish. Just six points separate third-placed Luton and tenth-placed Millwall. All of them are in erratic form, whilst games in hand render the table untrustworthy.
Who will prevail? Here’s our pinsticker’s guide to the Championship run-in…
THE HOT FAVOURITES
Firstly, ignore the table. Nottingham Forest may be languishing in ninth position but they are the shortest priced of all the top six contenders - and with good reason.
Since Steve Cooper replaced Chris Hughton in September, Forest have lost just four times in 28 Championship games. Only Fulham have collected more points over that period, whilst the Trentsiders boast the best goal difference outside the top two. A run to the FA Cup quarter-finals has left them with games on everyone; win those, and Forest go third.
Like Cooper’s men, Middlesbrough have been hamstrung by their cup exploits, which were crushed in clinical fashion by Chelsea last weekend. Boss Chris Wilder, though, immediately turned his focus to the league.
“It’s an eight or ten team mini-league and we’ve just got to hold our nerve,” he said. “If we do, I think we’ve got enough out there that can win games between now and the end of the season.”
More than enough. In wingback Isaiah Jones, Boro have a bona fide game-changer. Aaron Connolly, Folarin Balogun and Duncan Watmore offer options up front and a settled back three is water-tight.
Want experience? Look no further than double promotion winner Jonny Howson.
Boro have Fulham and Bournemouth to play, and will need to improve on an away record that has yielded just one win in the last seven. But with bottom-half teams filling the majority of the fixture list, it is theirs to lose.
THE RANK OUTSIDERS
“Just because we did not show our quality in the last two games does not mean we will not show it in the games to come.”
Those were the words of Carlos Corberan after defeats to Bournemouth and Millwall ended Huddersfield’s unlikely bid for the top two.
Widely tipped to struggle amid the wreckage of dwindling parachute payments, boardroom upheaval and two years of insipid football, the Terriers clicked into gear in November and powered up the table.
Corberan has benefited from being less dogmatic in his tactics and the Terriers carry a fearsome threat on the counter. Clearly shattered against Bournemouth, they will benefit from a rest and if Sorba Thomas can recapture his sparkling mid-season form then anything is possible.
On the down side, they lack the firepower of most top-six rivals and concede a lot of chances, as illustrated by an xGA of 1.56 - the fourthworst in the division.
Huddersfield’s slump means Luton are now the closest challengers to Bournemouth and Fulham, but you would be hard pushed to find anyone willing to wager they’ll stay there.
That’s no reflection on manager Nathan Jones or his players, who have proved that hard work and skilful coaching are more than a match for monstrous budgets.
The Hatters’ high-tempo pressing is a nightmare for opponents, particularly at Kenilworth Road, and a relatively kind run of fixtures gives them a chance.
The big worry is whether a team of such scant resources can sustain the form that has seen them win 12 of the last 18, especially when the big boys return refreshed from the international break.
Millwall, in tenth, are rarely in anybody’s top-six forecast, but Gary Rowett has a knack of pushing the Lions into the mix. Getting them over the line is a different matter, though and, despite a run of 14 points from a possible 21, the feeling lingers that they will come up short.
FADING FAST
You have to feel for QPR. With the exception of Fulham and Bournemouth, no side in the Championship has spent more days in the top six this season. Yet as the season gallops to a finish, the Hoops find themselves on the outside looking in.
The wheels have well and truly come off at the Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium, with last weekend’s 3-1 home defeat to basement boys Peterborough prompting a barrage of abuse from the stands.
“It burns in your ears,” said boss Mark Warburton, whose side have won just two of their last ten matches. “We need to look at ourselves and go back to baickly.” sics very quickly."
That, though, is easier said than done. Morale is low. Injuries have decimated an already tight squad. Warburton is missing four goalkeepers, and news of a season-ending injury to influential winger Chris Willock is a devastating blow that cannot be overstated.
Top-scorer Lyndon Dykes is set to return after six weeks out, however, and games against Sheffield United (twice) and Huddersfield mean QPR’s fate is just about in their own hands.
Blackburn’s presence in the top two over Christmas always felt like something of a mirage, and so it has proved.
Since the beginning of February, Tony Mowbray’s side have scored fewer goals (4) than any team in the Championship and won just twice, a run that places them - along with QPR - in the bottom three of the form table.
Any chance of rekindling their promotion bid will hinge on the return of 20-goal top scorer Ben Brereton Diaz, but after two months on the sidelines he is unlikely to hit the ground running.
COMING UP ON THE RAILS
Accepted wisdom says a fast finisher always wins the playoffs. Sheffield United, who didn’t trouble the top six until late February, fit the bill.
A shambles under Slavisa Jokanovic, Paul Heckingbottom reinstated the 3-5-2 that carried United to promotion in 2019 and seared up the table. With the talent and experience at his disposal, it’s perhaps no surprise, and a deceptively hard run-in (Fulham should be in party mode by the final day) make the Blades a sensible punt.
The only potential spanner in the works is an extensive injury list, the latest of which saw skipper and top scorer Billy Sharp suffer a hamstring injury.
VERDICT
1. Fulham 4. Sheff U
2. Bournemouth 5. Middlesbro’
3. Nott’m Forest 6. Luton