How funding impasse could be broken
What is the new US plan to fund Ukraine?
The Republican speaker of the House, Mike Johnson, has proposed splitting the massive $95bn aid bill that was originally passed by the Senate in February into four separate bills. Each would go to an individual vote.
One of the bills would focus on Ukraine, one on Israel, one on Taiwan and Indo-Pacific allies and the fourth on a kind of grabbag of foreign policy priorities, including banning TikTok in the US, sanctions on Iran and making aid to Ukraine a loan.
The details of the four bills have not yet been released. But essentially Johnson is proposing to unlink aid for Ukraine – which many Republicans oppose, causing it to languish in the House for months – from aid for Israel, which is more popular.
Controversially, humanitarian aid for Gaza – for which $9bn was allocated in the original Senate bill – may not be included in any of the bills, although it could yet be added (and Democrats insist that bit is non-negotiable).
What is its chance of success?
Each bill would need to pass its own vote, which could be difficult. Republicans have only a two-seat majority in the House, and Georgia congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene immediately denounced the bill as a “sham”. Johnson’s plan received some initial support from other hard-right Republicans, but several of them then expressed scepticism about the speaker’s plan to bundle the bills together when they are sent to the Senate.
“Israel funding should not be held hostage by Ukraine funding,” congressman Andy Biggs, a Republican of Arizona, wrote on X. Many far-right Republican members oppose Ukraine aid, with some members threatening to torpedo Johnson’s leadership should he bring the original Senate bill to a vote in the House. He reportedly told Joe Biden that splitting the aid bill into four parts was the only solution.
What is the current situation on the battlefield in Ukraine?
With western aid stalling and Russia on the offensive on multiple fronts, Ukraine is nearing its most perilous period since it first repelled Moscow’s full-scale assault in February 2022. For months Ukraine has grappled with three pressing challenges: insufficient ammunition, a scarcity of experienced troops amid mounting casualties and dwindling air defence missiles.
The eastern Ukrainian Donetsk region has been the focal point of Russia’s slow advance, with Russian forces currently aiming to capture the strategically important town of Chasiv Yar.
What are other schemes to arm and fund Ukraine?
In addition to military and financial assistance from European Nato allies and others, the Czech Republic is leading a multinational initiative to buy hundreds of thousands of artillery ammunition rounds for Ukraine. First deliveries to Kyiv are expected by June.
The Czech plan, which has received support from about 20 countries, works by European countries buying the shells from countries in Africa and Asia, such as South Korea, which are unwilling to supply them directly to Ukraine but happy to sell to a third party.
How is Nato planning to help?
This month, the Nato secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, proposed an unprecedented five-year, €100bn package of military aid to Ukraine. The initiative aims to alleviate future uncertainty over US military aid to Ukraine by shifting more responsibility to the Nato bloc. Experts and diplomats have cautioned that Stoltenberg’s plan is at a very early stage and it is unclear whether the €100bn total would be accepted or how it would be financed.
How would the $60bn aid package help Ukraine?
Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, has previously warned that his country “will lose the war” if the US Congress fails to approve military aid.
While US Republican critics of the aid package have voiced anger over what they perceive as excessive assistance to Ukraine, a significant portion of the funds allocated to Kyiv will remain within the US.
Of the $60.7bn for Ukraine, about $20bn would be used by the US to replenish its military stockpiles depleted by the push to arm Ukraine. Another $14bn would be allocated to the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, a special programme in which the Pentagon purchases new weapons for the Ukrainian military directly from US defence contractors.
The US has so far sent Ukraine roughly $111bn in weapons, equipment and humanitarian assistance.