Prime minister struggling to smother frenzy of rumours
In a sign of how febrile the atmosphere in Westminster is, there were wild rumours flying around yesterday that Rishi Sunak was planning to finally call an election after the weekend. The fact this particular theory appears to have begun with Labour party speculation that the prime minister could announce a date to put an end to questions over his own leadership doesn’t appear to have slowed down its spread.
With the local elections on Thursday looking as if they could end disastrously for the Conservatives, No 10 has been anxiously trying to get a firm grip on the narrative before polling day. Yet the likelihood of Sunak firing the starting gun on a general election campaign on Monday, which would mean going to the polls in early June, has been met with bemusement in Tory circles.
David Davis, a former cabinet minister, said the government would be “off its head” to call an election now when it was firmly 20 points behind Labour in the polls.
“It’s going to go distant, sometime in November, maybe even December, to allow some of the economic improvements to come through,” he said. “So no, it would be a suicidal thing to do in political terms.”
Downing Street insiders laughed off the rumour, while Sunak spent the day visiting apprenticeships in a factory in Stevenage before heading to Chequers, his graceand-favour country residence, for the weekend.
Despite months of often frenzied conjecture over his leadership, and the prospect of a terrible set of local election results, the prime minister’s aides say he is feeling more secure.
Over the last week he has announced plans to overhaul the welfare system, got his Rwanda deportation bill through parliament, and committed to spending 2.5% of GDP on defence by the end of the decade.
“We know that not everybody in the party is happy but hopefully they will see that Rishi is delivering on important issues and they need to stick with him – and his plan,” said one No 10 insider.
Sunak appeared more relaxed – and less tetchy – than he has done recently while on a two-day visit to Poland and Germany to announce his defence plans this week. Speaking to reporters on the plane, he repeated his mantra that the election is likely to be in the second half of the year, which most of his MPs interpret as meaning November – although it could technically mean July.
Yet No 10 advisers remain nervous about the fallout from the local polls, where the Tories are projected to lose half the council seats up for election, while their two most high-profile regional mayors – Andy Street in the West Midlands and Ben Houchen in Tees Valley – face tough battles. If either of them lose, some Tory insiders fear that in the days after 2 May Sunak could face a confidence vote, with just 52 Tory MPs needing to feel despondent enough about their party to trigger one. Theresa May and Boris Johnson’s experience of confidence votes suggests that even prime ministers who win them experience their authority draining away.
MPs have noted that Sunak has, unusually, spent two weekends in a row at Chequers, where he and his team can strategise in private without being spotted by the media or suspicious MPs. Would-be successors are already
readying themselves. “All of those who think they’re going to be contenders for the leadership are actively preparing,” one former minister said. “Once people start to think the local elections could be really disastrous they start talking up the threat to Rishi. The danger is it starts to gain momentum so everybody prepares for a contest – and then it becomes more likely.”
Tory insiders say that Penny Mordaunt, the Commons leader, is among those “on manoeuvres”. She has spoken at dozens of Tory grassroots associations in the past months, in what has been perceived as part of her preparations for a potential leadership campaign.
One Tory insider said that some of Mordaunt’s allies were discussing an economy-centred pitch she could make if Sunak were to be ousted. One of her allies has told friends there were 70 Tory MPs prepared to back her should she run for leader in those circumstances.
Tory MPs believe that Mordaunt – unlike her putative rivals, Kemi Badenoch, Suella Braverman and Grant Shapps – could struggle to hang on to her Portsmouth North seat, despite her 15,780 majority, so she would prefer a leadership contest before a general election.
Another Tory insider allied to Downing Street said she was being referred to among some MPs as “Poison Pen” because of the perception she was actively preparing for a contest.
Allies of Mordaunt have denied she was preparing for a campaign or trying to take advantage of Sunak’s weak position, insisting she was getting on with her job.
One said: “This is tedious stuff. If these nameless, faceless briefers really don’t have anything better to do, perhaps they might consider helping get the vote out in the local, mayoral and PCC [police and crime commissioner] elections. I’m pretty sure the PM would welcome that.”
Badenoch, considered the frontrunner thanks to her popularity with the Tory grassroots, raised eyebrows when she declared in advance of a vote on Sunak’s smoking ban this month that she could not support it. It was seen as attempt to burnish her libertarian credentials.
Shapps has been accused by one former minister of being “particularly blatant” over his ambitions, inviting Tory MPs to defence briefings and following up with them directly if he did not hear back. “There’s deniability in the cover,” they added.
A source close to Shapps claimed that he was simply keen to keep colleagues abreast of developments. “There is a lot happening in the world and MPs want to be kept updated,” they said. “It’s perfectly reasonable for him to be in contact with and meet colleagues who have an interest in the area.”
However, many MPs think the idea of changing leaders could be catastrophically damaging. A senior Tory MP who backed Mordaunt in 2022 said: “Any new leader would have to immediately call a general election because the pressure would be so great.”