Ministers consider making UK’s emissions targets easier to meet

Ministers are considering whether to weaken Britain’s emissions-cutting ambitions by allowing the unused portion of the last carbon budget to be carried over to the next period.

This would go against the recommendation of the government’s statutory advisers the Climate Change Committee (CCC), but would make the next targets easier to meet.

The UK emitted less carbon dioxide than expected in recent years, owing to factors including the Covid-19 pandemic and sluggish economic growth. The CCC has said this should be ignored when setting the next five-year targets, which need to be more stringent to increase the chance of reaching net zero by 2050.

The government has until the end of this month to decide, and has said publicly only that such a decision would be made “in due course”.

Campaigners fear ministers will take advantage of the loophole. Dustin Benton, the policy director at Green Alliance, said: “The government will make a grave error of judgment if it weakens plans to cut emissions, carrying forward a right to burn carbon that only exists because the economy has grown less quickly than we thought when we set the third carbon budget in 2008.”

The UK would still have to meet its target of 68% emissions cut by 2030, set at Cop26 in Glasgow.

Benton said: “Cashing in phantom credits wouldn’t change our international commitments – it just means we’d need to double the rate at which we cut emissions late this decade, making the job much harder. By shifting the goalposts, it sends yet another signal that this government isn’t serious about supporting the green industries of the future.”

He pointed to research by his thinktank that showed only half of carbon reductions needed by 2032 were covered by confirmed policy. “We need action to close the gap – not excuses for inaction,” he said.

The UK overachieved on meeting its third five-year carbon budget, which ran from 2018 to 2022 and sought a reduction of 38% on 1990 levels. Actual emissions for the period were 15% below a budget cap of 2,544 megatonnes of CO2 equivalent.

Under the 2008 Climate Change Act, ministers are allowed to count a surplus of emissions savings from a previous carbon budget towards the next one. That would make the next budget easier to meet, but could also slow the path towards net zero.

In February, the CCC asked the government not to carry over the surplus savings. Ministers have yet to make a decision, according to the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero.

A department spokesperson said: “We are the first major economy to halve emissions and have the most ambitious legally binding emissions targets in the world. We have overdelivered on every carbon budget to date, and will continue to meet our emissions targets. A decision on whether the UK’s overachievement on the third carbon budget is carried over will be made in due course.”