Up to 200 seats seen as vulnerable

The Conservative party is quietly pouring extra resources into dozens of Tory-held seats deemed at risk at the next general election, including one with a 17,000 majority.

As many as 200 constituencies held by Conservative MPs have been marked as vulnerable and worthy of extra support from party HQ , including Weston-super-Mare in Somerset. The seat has been held since 2005 by the Conservative MP John Penrose, who was re-elected in 2019 with a majority of 17,121.

It demonstrates that the Conservative party is taking a significantly more defensive approach to the election than it has admitted publicly, and that hitherto safe seats with sizeable majorities are now deemed at risk.

The Tories have long officially pursued an 80:20 election strategy, focused on defending their 80 most marginal seats and aiming to win 20 target seats from the opposition.

But the number of Tory constituencies marked as vulnerable and given extra support has risen from 80 to about 200 in recent months, according to a senior party source. It means the party is extending its defensive strategy to seats with hefty majorities of 15,000 or more.

The party did not deny the 200seat figure. A spokesperson said: “Only the Conservatives have a plan to deliver for the country and that’s why we are supporting all our MPs and candidates across the country.”

A party official said the 80:20 list had always been flexible. They said that as well as seats getting more defensive resources, more target seats had been added in Scotland, where the party believed it was in the strongest position to defeat the SNP.

The additional resources given to constituencies singled out under the 80:20 strategy include printed campaign material and digital support.

At a briefing with Tory MPs last year, the US pollster Frank Luntz warned that those with a majority of less than 15,000 were at risk of losing their seats. About 180 Tory MPs have majorities below that threshold.

Cabinet ministers with majorities of 15,000 or less include Alex Chalk, the justice secretary; Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor; Penny Mordaunt, the Commons leader; and Grant Shapps, the defence secretary.

A Tory source familiar with internal party processes said that while the 80:20 strategy was a useful fundraising tool, in reality the party was likely to be pursuing a “100% defence strategy”. The Conservatives suffered heavy losses at the local elections in England this month. They lost 515 councillors, ceded control of 10 councils and were defeated in the West Midlands and York and North Yorkshire mayoral contests.