Computer project’s climate warning

EVEN moderate emissions could warm the Earth by as much as 3˚C by 2050, leaders of a huge climate simulation project have warned.

Scientists who harnessed the power of thousands of volunteers’ home computers forecast a faster rate of warming than has been predicted before.

The models showed world temperatures are on course to rise between 1.4˚C and 3˚C given mid-range greenhouse gas emissions.

The findings show the world is very likely to cross the “two-degrees barrier” this century if emissions continue unabated. Experts believe warming of 2˚C above pre-industrial levels could trigger irreversible runaway climate change.

Almost 10,000 climate simulations were run using volunteers’ home computers. The project was part of the BBC Climate Change Experiment.

Scientists chose the most realistic projections after comparing them with r e gi o nal temperature changes in the past 50 years.

None passing the quality control test showed less than 1˚C warming by 2050. Around 15% predicted warming of as much as 3˚C.

The authors concluded that a 3˚C rise by 2050, compared with the average for 1960 to 1990, was the upper end of the “likely range” of global warming.

The research is published in the journal Nature Geoscience. Lead author Dr Dan Rowlands, from Oxford University, said: “It’s only by runningsuchalargenumber of simulations –with model versions deliberately chosen to display a range of behaviour – that you can get a handle on the uncertainty present in a complex system such as our climate.”