Upbeat Sturgeon is playing a long game

YOU may recall, not so long ago, that Murdo Fraser argued, strongly and plausibly, for Scots Tories to go it alone and become a German-style sister party of the London brand. Although he was one of the sharpest implements in the Tory cutlery drawer, a rattled party establishment squeezed him out for thinking that was clearly too radical for its time. His day may yet come.

Then Johann Lamont walked out as Scottish Labour leader, complaining that she was treated as if she was running the branch office, spawning much talk of a fully independent party north of the Border in a new relationship with head office. Successor Jim Murphy even talked that talk, with his new patriotic Clause Four and his tax on London mansions paying for Scottish nurses.

While our eye was off the ball looking at how the Conservatives or Labour might forge new relationships with their London HQs, something else was quietly building. The Tories are not coming back any time soon in Scotland and, if the polls are to be believed, Mr Murphy is marching his troops towards gunfire.

But what if Nicola Sturgeon is about to do something entirely radical in the politics of the north-south relationships on this island? What if, having seen off Labour north of the Border, her quiet diplomacy builds a new relationship with Labour in England by measured appeal to their backbenchers and to public opinion?

It is, of course, far too early to pronounce the death of Scottish Labour, with a fortnight to go until the General Election and a year to regroup before the next Holyrood poll. It is difficult to imagine something as institutionally embedded in Scottish society, particularly with the trade unions and local authorities, ceasing to be a force.

But if Labour do follow the Conservatives and Liberals into catastrophic decline in Scotland the position of the SNP could indeed become much more akin to a regional ally of Labour, perhaps not unlike that of the Social Democratic and Labour Party in Northern Ireland which was happy to join forces with Labour at Westminster.

While Mr Salmond cannot resist the kind of joke that rankles with opponents, such as his clearly jocular remark about writing Labour’s budget, Ms Sturgeon is much more likely to offer an olive branch and, as leader, she is clearly determined to order her Westminster troops to do just that. She “will be trying to win support from Labour backbenchers” for a different approach to austerity.

She said: “I suspect there will be a lot of people on Labour’s back benches who think that is the right thing to do. I think there will be a lot of opportunity, if there is a minority Labour government, to shift Labour into that position. That’s part of the building alliances. In a minority parliament you build alliances to shift the position of the government.”

In the post-election bitterness and rancour likely after May 7, such aspirations for seeking warm relations with Labour might be a forlorn hope, particularly in light of new figures suggesting austerity would be deeper and more prolonged under SNP plans than Labour ones; of limited appeal to potentially sympathetic Labour backbenchers. But she is sincere about her party being a constructive ally and not a destructive force at Westminster.

She is playing a long game, and doing so cleverly.