Challenge now is to make the Iran nuclear deal work

WITH regard to Scotland’s oil industry, the deal in Vienna on Iran’s nuclear programme is more bad news. The lifting of economic sanctions and the eventual opening up of Iran’s vast oil and gas reserves to Western companies means only one thing: lower oil prices over a longer period.

Looking beyond the parochial, this deal, reached after lengthy negotiations, should leave the world considerably safer and significantly alter the dynamics of Middle East politics.

The headline achievement is significant in itself. In return for the lifting of sanctions that have caused prolonged and significant suffering in Iran, the country’s government will submit to restrictions that will prevent it developing nuclear weapons for at least a decade. Concessions to Tehran will be counterbalanced by monitoring of Iran’s nuclear programme from every angle. The carrot of the lifting of UN sanctions is also a stick, with the deal including measures to reinstate penalties within 65 days if there is any breach. Iran has agreed to an ongoing prohibition on acquiring missiles for eight years and most conventional weapons for five years.

Meanwhile, opening the country up to the global economy has its own benefits, and it is clear America hopes economic improvements for Iran’s citizens will also help cement the place of moderate elements in the country’s polity. In terms of arms control, the agreement is a hugely significant diplomatic achievement; but much more than that, this deal opens up the real prospect of achieving far greater stability in the region. Critics of the deal, of course, such as Benjamin Netanyahu, argue precisely the opposite, warning that it will increase instability and that America has effectively handed Tehran billions of dollars with which to develop nuclear weapons. But President Barack Obama appears to have stopped listening to the Israeli prime minister, who looks increasingly isolated and indeed faces severe criticism at home as a result.

The deal brings back into the international fold, at a critical time, a country without whose presence solutions in the Middle East are hard to envisage. Tehran plays a key role in Syria, through its support for president Bashar al-Assad, whose regime it has backed with military and financial aid. It has also been a key ally of the Hezbollah movement in Lebanon. Its part in helping Mr Assad defend Syria against its enemies, including the so-called Islamic State (IS), cannot be underestimated.

Despite grave reservations about the Syrian regime, that country’s future will be vital in the international battle against IS and, in any future negotiations, dialogue with Iran is likely to make such talks more fruitful.

The nuclear deal is not perfect. Tehran’s compliance will need to be rigorously monitored. For President Obama, the road ahead is rocky and Republicans at home will attempt to veto the plan. With a presidential election looming, this diplomatic success may come at a political cost.

But it is a hugely significant achievement and a welcome one.