Battlelines drawn between parties as the countdown to Holyrood elections begins
SNP Leader: Nicola Sturgeon
Current seats: 64
A good result? Winning a majority in 2011 was a remarkable result for the SNP. Given the party’s dominance in the polls, it is expected to do better this time around, winning even more seats than under Alex Salmond.
Expected to say: The party will exploit the First Minister’s remarkable popularity with voters, putting her front and centre of the campaign. The SNP is also likely to remind voters of popular policies on free tuition, prescription fees, childcare and the council tax freeze. It will continue to present itself as “progressive” and place an emphasis on helping the poorest in society. Indications are that the party will reserve the right to call a second independence referendum in certain circumstances. Expect opposition to attack on: Its record on health and education, which will be strongly defended by the SNP. The issue of Scottish independence is likely to be prominent, particularly in light of the tumbling oil price. How dominant will depend on what the party says regarding a second referendum. Opponents will seek to exploit the catalogue of problems faced by Police Scotland.
Labour Leader: Kezia Dugdale
Current seats: 38
What’s a good
result? Ms Dugdale has said she hopes her party will be “clapped off the pitch at the end of the season” in what looks like a bid to lower expectations. Even the most optimistic Labour activists would accept it is highly unlikely Ms Dugdale will become First Minister in May and that seats will fall to the SNP.
Expected to say: Labour will present itself as the true party of social justice and claim SNP actions do not match the party’s rhetoric. Ms Dugdale has been keen to highlight a lack of progress in closing the attainment gap between the richest and poorest children in classrooms. Labour has been open about its desire to use new powers coming to Holyrood to raise taxes on the rich.Expect attacks on: Ms Dugdale’s inexperience (she only became an MSP in 2011 and leader in August) may prove a weakness. Expect to be reminded of the pre-referendum alliance with the Tories.
Conservatives Leader: Ruth Davidson Current seats: 15
What’s a good
result? Ms Davidson has set an ambitious target of achieving the Tories’ highest ever cohort of MSPs. This means the party will have to win more than the 18 seats it took in 1999 and 2003.
Expected to say: The party will make a pitch to centrist voters, with Ms Davidson recently attacking the excesses of both the left and the right. The Tories, unlike Labour and probably the SNP, will not propose tax rises.
Expect attacks on: The UK Westminster Government’s budget cuts and attacks on welfare (Scottish Tories were delighted by George Osborne’s U-turn on tax credit cuts). Opposition parties will continue to present the Tories as a toxic brand north of the Border.
Liberal Democrats Leader: Willie Rennie Current seats: 5
What’s a good result? Polls have remained dire for the party, suggesting that it is yet
to recover from its damaging UK coalition with the Tories. At present, retaining its small number of MSPs looks a realistic target.
Expected to say: The LibDems will highlight their strong record on scrutinising Police Scotland, GP and mental health services and attack the SNP’s record in these areas and tendency for centralisation. Mr Rennie has said that Scotland needs to “move on” from the debate over the constitution. The party is also a vociferous critic of plans to introduce standardised testing in primary schools.
Expect attacks on: Voters will be reminded of the coalition with the Tories, along with broken promises over tuition fees south of the Border. The party’s predominantly male cohort, and downgrading of justice spokeswoman Alison McInness on the regional list, may be highlighted by three parties with female leaders.
Greens Leader: Patrick Harvie/ Maggie Chapman
Current seats: 2. Two other MSPs have joined the party since 2011 but sit in Holyrood as independents.
What’s a good result?
The Greens believe that 2016 could bea breakthrough year. Membership surged since the referendum, meaning it has more resources and activists. Returning 10 MSPs is not a completely unrealistic target.
Expected to say: The party will attempt to appeal to pro-independence voters and put forward a more radical platform on land reform and local taxation than the SNP, while promising to offer non-tribal, constructive opposition to a nationalist administration. It is likely to pledge a ban on fracking while others sit on the fence or support it. A successful strategy for capturing second votes of those who support the SNP in constituencies will prove vital if the Greens are to make significant gains.
Expect attacks on: Some of the more unorthodox proposals in the Green play book. Policies on energy, redistribution and housing may come under more scrutiny with the prospect of Greens exerting real influence at Holyrood. Although not areas under Holyrood control, positions on a universal citizens wage, drug legalisation and the military may be exploited by opponents in a bid to put mainstream voters off.
Others RISE, a coalition of pro-independence socialists including the SSP, is putting forward candidates exclusively on the regional lists. It hopes to draw on the energy of the referendum campaign to capture support of the unashamedly left-wing, antiausterity demographic.
UKIP is hoping that it can repeat its success in the European election, when it claimed more than 10 per cent of the vote, to return its first ever MSPs. The party may benefit from an increased focus on the in/out EU referendum as May approaches, particularly if it emerges that the vote will be held next year.
Solidarity, Tommy Sheridan’s party is standing candidates on all eight regional lists. It is calling for voters to support the SNP with their constituency votes before backing Solidarity with second votes. It has pledged to push for a second independence referendum by 2018. The Scottish Libertarian Party will put forward candidates on a pro-Scottish independence, low tax, anti-EU platform.