A fraught year ahead with all eyes on Turkish moves
Defining events of last year were curtain raisers for those in 2016
YES it’s that time of year again. The moment when I take up my role as the Russell Grant of international news and proffer predictions for the coming months. Just what are the flashpoints, people and events to look out for as we roll into 2016?
In many ways the logical place to start is in the country that bridges Europe and Asia and the place that I firmly believe will be pivotal in so many of the events making the headlines this year – Turkey.
This is the year when Turkey is likely to assert itself in a number of ways. Three areas are worth watching. The first will be Ankara’s determination to extend its military influence in northern Syria and Iraq confronting the Islamic State (IS) group. To that end we can expect an operation west of the Euphrates River attacking IS and securing Turkey’s borders.
The second will be Turkey’s bolstered efforts to keep Kurdish nationalist aspirations in check which doubtless it will do with a heavy hand as is already evident in the predominately Kurdish southeast of the country. More than anything it is this showdown with the Kurds that looms large in the months ahead. This too before Turkey’s already strained relations with Russia.
As gatekeeper to the Black and Mediterranean seas, the last thing Moscow wants is a confrontation with Turkey, but to a great extent that cat is already out of the bag as the war of words and deeds escalates after the shooting down last year of a Russian war plane after it strayed into Turkish airspace. Relations between both countries are set for a trying time.
At home in Russia President Vladimir Putin will continue to focus on the economy and security. While we can expect to see economic pressures result in more protests, the Kremlin might allow these but will attempt to defuse any large and well-organised demonstrations that take on more of an anti-Kremlin tone.
And before moving on from the Middle East it is worth pausing to consider what IS as a force in Syria and Iraq might face. The jihadists will likely suffer notable losses this year, but be far from defeated. This erosion in its core territory will, of course, mean we can expect to see the IS leadership call for more transnational terrorist strikes in the West.
Speaking of Europe, this will be a year of dramatic political shifts in countries like France and Germany who have elections looming in 2017. As both move in a more nationalist and eurosceptical direction, relations between Paris and Berlin will come under strain.
And on the subject of strain, Greece is far from out of the economic woods yet with the government of Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras likely to face the dual challenges of political fragility and the spectre of social unrest. Still in the Balkans, the pressure brought to bear last year by the refugee and migration crisis will continue to be felt. This will show in the make-up of the Schengen Agreement, with some countries constraining freedom of movement and others possibly opting out. With many refugees and migrants getting stuck in the region, pressure will build on countries already under the cosh of high unemployment, and ethnic tensions.
Further afield in South Asia, we can expect to see Pakistan’s Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif continuing to direct the country’s military toward battling domestic Islamist militants. The Pakistan military will also act as a key facilitator in talks in neighbouring Afghanistan between the Taliban and Kabul government. And speaking of the Taliban it would be no surprise to see them in more violent competition with the growing, though still comparatively small, presence of IS in the region.
In East Asia, China’s leadership is looking at a troubled year as it manages the economic and social impacts of economic change. This year will also likely see further, cautious loosening of currency controls. In all, China’s reform process has reached a precarious phase.
Precarious situations too exist on the continent of Africa where there will be the depressingly familiar scenario of political leaders clinging to power and in some cases pushing for constitutional change in order for them to do so. This will be most apparent in Rwanda where a recently held referendum has enabled President Paul Kagame to run for a third term if he chooses. At its potentially most destabilising, President Joseph Kabila in Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has been pursuing extra legal means to secure more time in office and if successful there then is sure to face protests.
Problems too can be expected in Burundi where a political struggle threatens to boil over into open warfare along sectarian lines between Hutus and Tutsis. On the other side of the globe there could, however, be cause for optimism in Latin America where the Colombian government in 2016 may well be able to negotiate the demobilisation of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (Farc) and is hoping to sign a peace deal by March.
Elsewhere in Latin America, watch out for Mexico’s criminal cartels going head-to-head in turf wars as the government there also continues to spearhead its counter narcotics strategy.
In all, the defining events of the last year raised the curtain on many of the events we can expect to play out this year. They will be no less tumultuous and certainly more complex.
Well that’s my crystal ball gazing for now, only to repeat what I said earlier – keep your eye on Turkey. A happy and peaceful New Year to all.
‘‘ It would be no surprise to see Taliban in more violent competition with the growing, though still comparatively small, IS