Next Tory leader could be a name you have never heard of
ACURSORY glance at Conservative Party history reveals the heir apparent rarely gets the throne. That was true of David Cameron, Iain Duncan Smith in 2001 and in 1975 with Margaret Thatcher.
Check old newspapers and you will find thousands of column inches devoted to speculation about “the next Tory leader” from Willie Whitelaw in the 1970s, Michael Heseltine in the 1980s and Michael Portillo the decade after that. But it all proved academic.
Rarely did anyone punt Mrs Thatcher, John Major, William Hague, IDS or Mr Cameron, yet they all emerged as leader. Now it looks as though the same will be true of Boris Johnson and George Osborne, endlessly discussed but destined not to reach the top of the greasy pole.
That’s why Mr Duncan Smith’s surprise resignation has had such an impact. Having already served as leader, briefly and disastrously, in the early 2000s, there was no whiff of careerism. Of course there was a personal element (he and the Chancellor clearly despise one another), but it was as close to a resignation on a point of principle as is possible in the modern political era.
Apparently Mr Osborne and his advisers didn’t consider IDS “clever” enough to be a Cabinet minister, while the charge frequently levelled against the Chancellor is of being “too clever by half”. Tories tend not to like those who are either too clever or too stupid.
Indeed, many of the events that led to this bout of Tory infighting were selfinflicted wounds, rash commitments made during the General Election that were bound to cause unnecessary political trouble – such as a lower welfare cap and the Trade Union Bill.
And while IDS is no saint, it was difficult to come away from yesterday’s Andrew Marr interview without the impression of a politician sincerely committed to welfare reform but clearly at his wits’ end with constant interference from Number 11.
Whatever one might think of the consequences, IDS has done more serious work on welfare policy than anyone in Labour or the SNP; venturing where others have long feared to tread.
His resignation also highlights that, for a long time, Mr Cameron has papered over the cracks in a party riven by personalities, frustrated ambitions and, of course, Europe. Referendums, as the Scottish experience illustrates all too well, are subject to the law of unintended consequences, and one consequence of June 23 has been giving hitherto disciplined Tory MPs permission to say and do anything they like.
Which is why Mr Osborne, long the Prime Minister’s heir apparent, is in such trouble. So much so there’s even post-hoc spinning to the effect he did not necessarily intend to run once a vacancy had arisen. That is nonsense, but revealing nonsense.
With the Parliamentary Party split down the middle on Europe and the Chancellor’s fan base shedding members, his chances were already diminishing; IDS (think of him as Geoffrey Howe to Osborne’s Thatcher) simply supplied the final nail in the coffin.
In truth, Mr Johnson, the other heir apparent, has never been a truly credible Tory leader and his behaviour over the European referendum, half-heartedly arguing for Out when he probably wants to stay In, reduced that credibility further still.
Something similar is true of Zac Goldsmith, BoJo’s heir apparent for the London Mayoralty. What possessed him to declare for Brexit in an overwhelming pro-European city is anyone’s guess, but it more or less guarantees the next leader of the UK capital will not be a Tory.
The backstories of those jostling for the succession is also important. Just as in the 1960s when there was a general feeling the Conservatives could not afford to be led by yet another Old Etonian, the same is true half a century later.
Whatever Mr Johnson’s other qualities (Zac doesn’t even have an obvious personality to fall back on), he comes from a world perhaps even more rarified than that of Dave and George. Tories have an acutely-developed appetite for power, and the smarter ones understand sustaining their appeal will be harder with yet another over-privileged leader at the helm.
Which is where Stephen Crabb, the new Work and Pensions Secretary comes in. I met the former Welsh Secretary a few years ago and found him understated and impressive, while in terms of backstory he is straight out of a political textbook: raised by a single mother in a council house, he once worked on a building site for a summer job.
His provenance couldn’t be further removed from the playing fields of Eton. “So, provided he doesn’t make an a*** of it,” says one senior Tory, “Stephen provides an alternative leadership flank.”
Mr Crabb has another advantage – genuinely pan-British (if not pan-UK) credentials. Born on a hippy commune near Inverness, he was raised in west Wales and studied in London and Bristol, and while his spell as Welsh Secretary was not without strife, he is well respected among ministerial colleagues and has a good feel for the developing devolution settlement.
Mr Duncan Smith was not exactly keen on seeing some of his departmental responsibilities (such as Personal Independence Payments) devolved to Scotland, but on that front his successor will be much more constructive.
Mr Crabb also positions himself well when it comes to Europe, arguing that the “case for Wales remaining within the EU cannot be left to those who say stay in at any cost”, and thus winning modest approval from both sides of the In/Out divide.
A recent survey of Tory members on the Conservative Home website found Mr Crabb the most popular of the Cabinet ‘Inners’, so it’s not impossible he could ultimately emerge as the “unity” candidate to heal the Conservative Party’s considerable wounds, a bit like John Major at the end of the Thatcher era.
And although things are undeniably messy, the imminent Easter recess will aid Mr Cameron’s attempts to steady the ship and renew his focus on the electoral hurdles ahead: the devolved elections on May 5 and the EU referendum six weeks after that. The sight of a divided party, meanwhile, obviously is not helpful from the Scottish Tories’ perspective, although Ruth Davidson has managed to put a degree of distance between herself and the Chancellor over the past few months.
She is also a fan of Mr Crabb, someone she once said displays “warmth as well as intelligence”. “When David Cameron stood (for leader) he was by far the youngest ... he was the outsider,” reflected Ms Davidson a few months ago. “The party can pick winners and doesn’t always pick the obvious choice.” That could turn out to be a very prescient observation.
‘‘ A recent survey of Tory members found Stephen Crabb was the most popular of the Cabinet ‘Inners’