May is killing the crusade for independence with kindness

ANYONE politically active in the 1980s will remember the cry of “no mandate” directed at the Thatcher and Major administrations by nationalists in both Labour and the SNP.

Although the argument – that the Tory government writ didn’t extend north of the Border – was widely accepted it never made any sense in legal or constitutional terms, for in a Parliamentary system Scotland had no special status beyond its 73 constituencies.

During last year’s general election, the SNP unwittingly conceded this point in becoming a sudden convert to the UK-wide legitimacy derived from a Commons majority, but of course the point had always been political: “standing up for Scotland” while stoking a sense of grievance at illegitimate Tory rule.

Since the European referendum, the “no-mandate” battle-cry has been revived in a new form, the point that while England and Wales voted to “Leave” the EU, Scotland and Northern Ireland voted to “Remain”. Of course it doesn’t work like that (as both the SNP’s Jim Sillars and the Scottish Tories’ Adam Tomkins have pointed out): it was a UK-wide referendum on the UK’s membership of the EU.

But again the framing is political rather than constitutional, and as everyone is agreed the First Minister has prosecuted the political case extremely effectively. Look beyond the style, however, and the substance isn’t nearly so compelling. As usual, the SNP is highly skilled at the tactics, but when it comes to anything deeper there’s little more than the usual glib debating points.

Take, for example, Nicola Sturgeon’s “red line” on precisely what she wants to get out of the complex negotiations ahead. The morning after the referendum she spoke of taking “all possible steps” to secure Scotland’s “continuing place in the EU and in the single market in particular”, but a few days later the First Minister was admonishing Scottish Tory leader Ruth Davidson for wanting to settle for anything less than full EU membership.

Then, following last Thursday’s meeting of the First Minister’s Standing Council, we were back to retaining access to the single market and freedom of movement. Both Anton Muscatelli, the group’s chair, and Ms Sturgeon referred to “Scotland’s continuing relationship with Europe”; “relationship”, of course, not being the same as “membership”.

For all the hyperbole about being the only ones with “a plan”, the Scottish Government appears to be making things up as it goes along. Few seem conscious of precisely how risky all this is for the First Minister: hold another referendum too soon and she might lose, and given the powerful precedent set by Messrs Salmond and Cameron it’d be difficult to see her career survive a second No vote.

Thus it’s not altogether clear where things stand. At one point the position seemed to be that if Scotland couldn’t somehow retain full membership of the EU as part of the UK then another referendum would take place, but if the “red line” is membership of the single market (generally inseparable from freedom of movement) then it’s much harder to see independence flowing from that given the new Prime Minister is working towards pretty much the same thing for the whole UK.

And here, for once, the wicked old Tories have actually handled matters reasonably deftly. They too have been guilty of mixed messages (Scottish Secretary David Mundell has been more willing to appear “flexible” than some of his Cabinet colleagues), but when the Prime Minister met the First Minister on Friday afternoon she continued a long-standing Unionist tradition of attempting to “kill Home Rule with kindness”.

Although the Scottish Government clearly doesn’t want another referendum any time soon, it knows it can only gain politically from being told that they cannot have one. The past few weeks have been full of dire warnings to the new PM from Sturgeon, Salmond et al not to contemplate blocking another plebiscite, so late last week Theresa May sensibly framed the question as a matter of what “should” happen rather than what “could”.

Mrs May was well advised, not only in heading to Scotland as soon as possible (her predecessor did the same thing in 2010), but also making clear her willingness to look at any Scottish Government options.

The SNP find constructive approaches much more difficult to deal with than those perceived as “blocks” or “vetoes”.

It seems to have worked, at least for the time being. While stressing obvious political differences (though outside Downing Street last Wednesday Mrs May sounded a lot like Ms Sturgeon), the First Minister was as friendly as it’s possible for a Nationalist to be towards one of the auld enemy.

Never before has an incoming British premier stressed his or her Unionism so overtly as Theresa May, who spoke of the Anglo-Scottish-WelshNorthern Irish Union being “special”. “The Prime Minister’s commitment to the Union is absolute,” reflects one Scottish Tory MSP, “whereas her definition of Brexit is pragmatic. Just as it should be.”

It’s become clear, meanwhile, that no senior EU figure is serious about a “special” deal for Scotland, certainly not one that would do a “reverse Greenland”. The First Minister and her advisers, however, realise that, and are basically gearing up to accept an argument they explicitly rejected during the first referendum, that Scotland will have to leave the UK before it can enter the EU. This was made clear in a Scottish Cabinet paper as far back as 2012, indeed so unwilling to accept that an independent Scotland’s membership wouldn’t be “automatic”, as Alex Salmond claimed ad nauseam, the then First Minister simply had that paper scrapped and an alternative prepared with a more acceptable position.

It also ought to be remembered that when the present First Minister joined the SNP in 1986 it supported withdrawal from the then EEC. The “independence in Europe” policy adopted two years later was primarily tactical, contrived to make independence more palatable to nervous voters rather than a deepseated commitment to the European project. And so it remains. Just a few weeks ago Ms Sturgeon was stressing that the EU“wasn’ t perfect ”– now it’ s suddenly the most perfect union ever created.

But here’s the rub: when Mrs May finally explains what “Leave” looks like, the SNP will have to say yes or no. It’ll then have to make a decision on a second referendum, but the timing of that would be fiendishly difficult. The Europhile Nationalist Alex Orr recently argued in these pages that it’d have to take place by next summer if Scotland had any hope of staying in the EU as the UK left in early 2019, but is the cautious Ms Sturgeon really ready for that?

Having resurrected the “no mandate” argument, however, the logical end point can only be – as it was in the 1980s – independence. Brexit, therefore, might end up not really meaning Brexit, while in Scotland’s case Remain might not actually mean Remain.

‘‘ The SNP find constructive approaches much more difficult to deal with than those perceived as a ‘blocks’ or ‘vetoes’