Historian Devine predicts nothing will happen despite referendum

LEADING Scottish historian Sir Tom Devine has predicted Brexit will never happen.

Sir Tom said he believes the UK will not leave the EU despite June’s shock referendum result.

The reality of what Brexit would mean, especially for the economy, coupled with demands from Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland to pass their verdict on the divorce settlement, could lead the UK to stay a member after all, he forecast. Speaking to Sally Magnusson on BBC Radio Scotland he also said he thought another independence referendum was “likely”.

But he warned there was an “intellectual hole” in the current pro-independence policy.

Sir Tom famously declared himself in favour of Scottish independence in the run up to the 2014 vote. Over the summer he warned the case for Scottish independence has been substantially weakened by the Brexit vote, which had raised the potential prospect of a “hard border” between Scotland and England.

During a wide-ranging interview Sir Tom said: “Personally, I don’t think Brexit will happen.”

He said many voters were still unaware of the “forest of complexities” involved and the “catastrophic consequences” for the economy, especially of a “hard Brexit”, in which politicians prioritise control over immigration over access to the EU’s Single Market.

He also predicted politicians in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland would demand a vote on the terms of the UK’s exit, even if it was not legally binding, in Holyrood, Stormont and Cardiff Bay.

Taken together, they could mean that the UK does not leave the EU, he said.

While adding that the future was “not my period” he also said it was “not appropriate” to hold another independence referendum now.

“There is still an intellectual hole at the heart of the proindependence policy,” he said.

“An economic hole, and a fairly large one, especially in relation to the potential currency. And the other thing is we still do not know yet the shape that Brexit, if it does occur, how it will be fashioned… so I think prudent caution would be a wise policy for the current Government.”

Sir Tom also said that former prime minister Gordon Brown has fallen out with him over his stance in the independence referendum.

“He [Brown] simply stopped contacting me” he said.