Spending squeeze forecast to slow house price growth
Scots homes could be affected but London is set to be hit the hardest
HOUSE prices will continue edging upwards next year but the rate of growth will slow as households see their spending power squeezed, according to a forecast.
Halifax said back in March that house prices were increasing at an annual rate of 10 per cent – but the pace of growth has been a downward trend since the spring.
By the end of 2017, Halifax expects annual house price growth across the UK to be running between one per cent and four per cent.
It said the relatively wide range for its forecast “reflects the higher than normal degree of uncertainty regarding the prospects for the UK economy next year”.
Halifax said it is “most likely” that the economy will soften over 2017 and lower levels of house sales could take place as more people respond to weaker economic conditions and a deterioration in housing affordability by not buying or moving home.
However, average house prices in Scotland have fallen over the last year as the number of sales continued to increase.
The average price is now £164,326 – a drop of 2.3 per cent on the same period last year – and is set to fall again with the new Land and Buildings Transaction Tax affecting the middle market.
Activity in the buy-to-let sector is also expected to cool further in 2017 as further new tax changes eat into landlords’ profits.
House price growth in London will slow more sharply than elsewhere as affordability there is already particularly stretched, according to the predictions.
It continued: “There is a risk of some price falls in parts of London, particularly in the most expensive central locations, in 2017. The recent fall in the value of the pound could, however, provide a renewed boost to the top end of the central London market by making cheaper for overseas buyers.”
But an ongoing shortage of properties for sale and low interest rates keeping mortgages relatively cheap will help to support house prices generally across the UK, the report said.
Halifax’s housing economist Martin Ellis said: “The housing market is critically dependent on how the wider economy evolves. We consider it most likely that the UK economy will soften over the course of 2017.
“This is most likely to result from the weakening of sterling pushing up import costs and dragging on purchasing power, both for consumers and as a determinant of business investment spending. it Slower economic growth in 2017 is likely to result in pressure on employment with a risk of a rise in unemployment.
“This deterioration in the labour market, together with an expected squeeze on households’ spending power – as inflation picks up and outpaces earnings growth later in the year – is likely to curb housing demand.
“These factors, combined with increasing affordability constraints, are likely to result in a further easing in annual house price growth during the coming year.”
Halifax’s prediction corresponds with several other forecasts, which point to UK house price growth continuing to slow.