Millions of jobs at risk from robot-driven machine age
Profound change in the world of work due to ‘tectonic technological shift’
A ROBOT revolution will place millions of British jobs under threat from automation, an in-depth report warns today.
Increasingly rapid advances in new technologies, including artificial intelligence and machine learning, will put some 15 million jobs, two-thirds of the total, at risk, according to the centre-left Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) think-tank.
While “work as we know it” will not be ended, those who benefit and those who lose out will be decided by who is in power in an increasingly assertive climate, the think-tank predicts.
The Future Proof – Britain in the 2020s report says that the vote to leave the European Union has delivered a “profound shock” to the UK’s political and economic order, which is likely to set the country on a “decade of disruption,” with permanently lower growth and living standards and, possibly, Scottish independence.
By 2030, Britain’s economy is predicted to be £55 billion smaller than pre-Brexit. At the same time, a rapidly ageing population, with the numbers of people aged 65 and over predicted to rise by one-third by the end of the next decade, will impose new strains on the state with the funding gap for adult social care expected to hit £13bn by 2030/31.
By the mid-2040s Britain will have the largest population of any European country. It will be more diverse with almost one-third from a black, Asian or minority ethnic background.
Constitutionally, the idea of a unitary British electoral map will become redundant due to the decline of Unionist parties in Scotland.
“Political divergence will drive further devolution to Scotland or, potentially, even independence,” says the report. “The political aftershocks of Brexit could outlast the economic effects.”
In the workplace, “exponential” improvements in new technologies such as artificial intelligence systems and machine learning will radically change the way people work.
The world economy and the institutions that manage it will come under intense pressure as the Global South (Africa, Latin America developing Asia including the Middle East) rises in economic and political importance. Half of all large companies will be based in emerging markets.
Climate change, biodiversity degradation and resource depletion will mean the global community will increasingly run up against the limits of the physical capacity of the Earth’s natural systems.
However, the report suggests it is in the workplace where some of the biggest changes will occur due to a “tectonic technological shift”.
It predicts rapid advances in robotics, networks of autonomous electric vehicles, strides in developing intelligent automation, a rise in super-computer technology, the growth of “smart cities”, rapid improvements in green renewable technology and greater use of nano technology in health care.
Politics is likely to become increasingly assertive in the economic arena after decades of a liberalising consensus. While there is the potential to create an era of widespread abundance, the changes could also usher in a “second machine age”, resulting in radical concentrations of economic power. Work is likely to become more insecure with more casualisation.
“Brexit is the firing gun on a decade of disruption,” declares the report. “Even as what we do and how we work changes, the UK is likely to remain trapped in a low-growth, low-interest-rate decade driven by demographic shifts, productivity trends, weak investment, weak labour power, high levels of debt, and the headwinds of a slowing global economy.
“Without reform, our political and social system will struggle to build a more democratic, healthy society in the decades ahead, even as Brexit accelerates us towards a radically different institutional landscape.”
Mathew Lawrence, the report’s author, said the challenge for Britain’s progressives was to build a “high energy democracy” at national, city and local levels as well as in the marketplace through increasing the public’s say on corporate governance, ownership and power. SIR Bradley Wiggins has announced his retirement from competitive cycling, bowing out as one of the most successful sportsmen in British history.
The 36-year-old took home eight Olympic medals, including five golds, and became the first Briton to win the Tour de France when he claimed the yellow jersey in 2012. The cyclist said: “I have been lucky enough to live a dream and fulfil my childhood aspiration of making a living and a career out of the sport I fell in love with at the age of 12. I’ve met my idols and ridden with and alongside the best for 20 years.”
He added: “2016 is the end of the road for this chapter, onwards and upwards, ‘feet on the ground, head in the clouds’ kids from Kilburn don’t win Olympic Golds and Tour de Frances!
“They do now.”