Trump pulled off biggest upset in US politics to win White House race
THE date was June 16, 2015, the place was New York City and the event was Donald J Trump announcing on live television his candidacy for the US presidency with the slogan, “We are going to make America great again”.
At the time few, if any, people gave the billionaire businessman turned TV celebrity much of a chance. He was prone to making unguarded and outrageous comments, had no political track record, had never held high office and was, in fact, not a seasoned politician.
Yet all of these factors would combine to make the 2016 presidential race the most extraordinary in modern American history and eventually place the brash, outspoken 70-year-old in the White House.
By early 2015, all the would-be presidents were busy raising money, holding preparatory meetings and declaring their candidacies.
After years of speculation Hillary Clinton, favourite for the Democrat crown, formally announced she was running.
While the Democrat field was comprised of two frontrunners, Mrs Clinton and left winger Bernie Sanders, the Republican field was a positive cavalry charge with 20 candidates.
The media and the electorate were transfixed by Mr Trump’s campaign and his outspoken, often outrageous statements. The more controversial his remarks, the more his supporters admired him and the more his opponents condemned him.
Among his outbursts was his denunciation of Mexicans as rapists, made on the day he announced his candidacy, and thus setting the tone for a polarised contest. He would later pledge to build a “great wall” across America’s border with Mexico, which would be paid for by the Mexicans themselves.
Six months later, Mr Trump called for a “complete shutdown” of Muslims entering the US. His comments were condemned on this side of the Atlantic with MPs calling for him to be banned from entering Britain.
Yet opinion polls showed he was the Republican candidate to beat. By May, he had secured enough delegates for the nomination and two months later Mr Trump accepted it.
Across the political divide, the assumption that Mrs Clinton would be a shoo-in was being seriously challenged by Mr Sanders. But by June, the former New York senator had finally won enough delegates to secure the Democrat nomination.
The race proper for the White House was on. It would prove bitter, divisive, controversial and deeply personal.
Mr Trump branded his opponent “crooked Hillary” over her use of private emails to access classified information while the former Secretary of State labelled her Republican rival a misogynistic, Putin-loving tax dodger and branded his supporters a “basket of deplorables”.
When Mrs Clinton was diagnosed with pneumonia after she apparently fainted at a 9/11 memorial service, Mr Trump accused her of not physically being up to the job of president.
Two later flashpoints would crystallise the campaign.
The first came when 10-year-old TV footage was broadcast, showing Mr Trump making lewd comments about kissing and trying to have sex with women. “When you’re a star, they let you do it.” He later dismissed the comments as “locker-room talk”.
The second came when the FBI announced it was investigating emails linked to the earlier probe into Mrs Clinton’s. She would be cleared of any wrongdoing just days from polling.
In the final days, both candidates made last-minute visits to battleground states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and North Carolina. It would later emerge that in the final three months, Mr Trump had made almost twice as many visits to these states as Mrs Clinton.
Even on polling day, the expectation among the media pundits was that the Democrat would narrowly win and America would have its first female president.
But as the votes slowly came in, the important swing states of Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania and North Carolina all went to Mr Trump. America had voted for change.
While it would later emerge that Mrs Clinton had won the popular vote, Mr Trump had garnered the majority of votes in the all-important electoral college. The antiEstablishment candidate had become the new Establishment.
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GIVEN what happened in 2016, the only thing certain about 2017 is uncertainty, writes Michael Settle.
After a snook was cocked at the Establishment with the Brexit vote and the Trump shock, the big question on the continent is: will there be a repeat performance?
In March, the Dutch go to the polls to elect all 150 members of Holland’s House of Representatives. Prime Minister Mark Rutte, head of the Liberal-Conservative People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), is pitched against Geert Wilders, who leads the anti-Muslim Party for Freedom (PVV).
Recent polls have given the rightwing PVV a healthy 13-point lead although one just before Christmas had it edging ahead of the VVD by a single point.
However, while Mr Wilders will be banking on an anti-immigrant, anti-Establishment Trump effect – his manifesto calls for the closure of all mosques, a ban on the Koran, and an end to immigration from Islamic countries – the Dutch system means that to gain power he would have to form an alliance with one or more parties, which could prove difficult.
The key test for right-wing populist sentiment on the continent will come in May when the French go to the polls with a head-to-head clash expected between the Republican candidate Francois Fillon and the Front National’s Marine Le Pen.
Mr Fillon is a Thatcherite and so is likely to pick up not only centreright votes but also those from the Left seeking to stop Mrs Le Pen at all costs.
This would seem to make Mr Fillon’s journey to the Elysee Palace irresistible.
Yet the populist surge that saw Brexit defy the odds and helped carry Mr Trump to the White House on a wave of anti-Establishment sentiment could create a similar momentum behind the Front National leader.
If Mrs Le Pen were to win, then, given her pledge to hold an in/out vote on France’s EU membership, politics across not only the continent but also here at home would be thrown into uncertainty.
The Brexit process and any move towards a second Scottish