Danger of turning hard right on EU
OR months now, Theresa May has faced pressure to lay out the details of her approach to Brexit, but so far, the response has been vague and evasive – the Government will not provide a “running commentary”, she says. Now a speech due tomorrow could finally provide some more clues – the problem is it also looks likely to be a signal the Prime Minister is heading in the wrong direction.
Her priority, it would seem, is immigration – in fact, so determined is Mrs May to achieve control over migration into the UK that she appears willing to sacrifice its membership of the single market and the customs union. In other words, to appease the right-wing of the Brexit argument, the Prime Minister will, in the end, go for a hard Brexit.
Seen from her own narrow perspective, the decision makes some sense, as concern over immigration drove much of the Leave vote. But if, as expected, tomorrow’s speech is the first sign that the PM is prepared to push the UK into a hard Brexit, it is also a sign she is willing to ignore the damage leaving the single market will do to the British economy. There must also be some doubt that she has properly considered the potentially serious consequences for the future of the UK and Scotland – or perhaps she is simply willing to take the risky choice of calling Nicola Sturgeon’s bluff.
On the economy, we can see that some of the damage has already been done, with the uncertainty over Brexit casting a pall over growth. Prices are rising, wages are stagnating and growth for next year is likely to be barely above one per cent. The Scottish business community has also made it clear it lacks confidence in the Brexit process. After years of struggle, Brexit is an added weight round the neck of the economy.
The idea that the UK Government would pursue a hard Brexit in the face of Scotland’s vote to remain in the EU is also a bad omen for the long-term health of devolution. The single market guarantees freedom of movement of people, which Scotland needs more than the rest of the UK, and yet Mrs May seems to see an end to freedom of movement as the be all and end all.
The UK Government has also looked wary of any special deal for Scotland, even though greater freedom of movement would be one way to help an economy that is increasingly imbalanced by an ageing population and dragged down by the state of the oil and gas industry. Scotland needs immigrants, but for the sake of the more extreme Brexiters, the Prime Minister seems prepared to slam the door on them.
If there is a glimmer of hope, it is that as long as Mrs May has not definitively said where the Government is heading, there is still some prospect of a more mature, collaborative deal. However, the background music is increasingly sounding like it has been composed by the more extreme Euro-sceptics rather than more moderate voices that can see the need for a bespoke arrangement for Scotland.
The watchword of the Brexit negotiations should be compromise. Instead, it is increasingly looking like the UK Government is prepared to dogmatically pursue a hard Brexit, with almost all of us paying the price.