As shadow of 2014 quickly falls on arguments
remained gaping holes in the case for independence, most familiar from 2014.
Time and again, she said voters wouldbeabletomake“an informed choice” when they went to the polls.
But asked which currency an independent Scotland would use, she said “all in good time”.
That is unlikely to convert any No voters suspicious of the SNP’s fiscal credentials.
Despite Ms Sturgeon saying she had a clear mandate for a referendum derived from the Brexit vote, she also failed to say such a referendum would reverse Brexit.
Instead, there would be a new relationship with Europe differenttotherestoftheUK– implying economic or physical borders – but details would have to wait.
It will be hard to argue that Scotland being dragged out the EU demands a referendum, but a Yes vote will not necessarily return Scotland to the EU.
One reason for caution is that a third of SNP supporters voted Leave in 2016, and the party needs to keep them to win next time.
EU or single market membership also means freedom of movement, so immigration, which was peripheral to the 2014 debate, could be integral to a second plebiscite. The SNP knows EU-style open migration is as unpopular in Scotland as in England.
Hence Ms Sturgeon’s inclusion of numerous other arguments in favour of independence to dilute the EU dimension – the democratic deficit, being ignored, possible Tory rule to 2030, and the recurring question of what kind of country Scotland should become.
Economic questions also loom large.
The recent confirmation by Andrew Wilson, chair of the SNP’s Growth Commission, that oil revenue is now assumed to be zero after independence, means the country could start life outside the UK with a deficit of around 10 per cent, the level the UK last faced after the 2008 crash then reduced during years of painful austerity.
As Paul Johnson of the IFS pointed out yesterday, public spending in the Scotland is also £1,000 a head higher in Scotland thantherestoftheUK.
Addressing a raging deficit while trying to fund above average spending with average tax revenue could mean deep cuts, big tax rises, or some of each.
The weather may have been set fair for Ms Sturgeon’s announcement, but there are surely storms and squalls ahead.