A bold move, but voters must know details of Brexit

ITHIN hours of the Brexit vote last year, Nicola Sturgeon said another referendum on Scottish independence was highly likely and she has been slowly turning up the temperature ever since. So the announcement that she will seek the approval of the Scottish Parliament next week for the referendum should not really come as a surprise to anyone. This day has been inevitable for some time.

In making the announcement there will be a second vote on independence as early as Autumn 2018, Ms Sturgeon has also proved again that she is Scotland’s most skilful politician and one who is unafraid of making bold gestures. The speculation in the last few days has been about when the Prime Minister will trigger Article 50, but Ms Sturgeon has seized the initiative. Any response from Theresa May now runs the risk of appearing spiteful. Ms Sturgeon looks politically astute. Mrs May looks like she is on the back foot.

However, Ms Sturgeon is far from being in total control. Indeed, the First Minister’s position on Brexit has meant she has backed herself into holding a referendum with most polls still showing a majority (albeit a narrow one) against independence; there is also a feeling she could not be seen as the leader of the SNP who flunked her chance. And, despite all the planning that has taken her to this point, the First Minister is taking a massive gamble with the future of her party and with her own career.

As for the question of her mandate to hold the referendum, the SNP stood on a manifesto promise to hold another referendum if the circumstances changed and an EU exit against Scotland’s will was given as a specific example of the kind of change that would trigger such a response. The party then went on to win the last election and it is likely to win any vote at Holyrood with the support of the Greens. The SNP does not have the total dominance it enjoyed a few years ago, but with a vote in Holyrood, it will have a mandate for the referendum.

Of course, the official position is that the Scottish Government is seeking the right to hold a referendum rather than announcing that one will definitely be held, the implication being it might not go ahead if the UK Government were to compromise at the 11th hour on the idea of a post-Brexit deal for Scotland. But no one believes that one. Not only has the UK Government refused to offer olive branches – even on issues where a Scottish deal would be relatively straightforward such as immigration – the momentum has been building and Ms Sturgeon’s announcement makes it unstoppable.

However, what does this mean for Scotland in the next two years? Ms Sturgeon reiterated yesterday that education remained her top priority in government but that claim is hard to take seriously. Before the 2014 referendum, much of the machinery of government was working on independence and it is difficult to see how it can be different this time. The Scottish Government does not have its problems to seek, with the funding crisis in health and social care top of the list. Will the Government really be focusing on these issues ahead of a referendum? In going ahead, the Government has also started a campaign that has every prospect of being even more divisive than the last one.

As for Brexit, the Scottish Government is sending out a muddled message on the issue. Firstly, Brexit has always been the explicit reason for a second referendum, and yet Ms Sturgeon was hazy about whether she would reverse Brexit. Partly this is because she is concerned about nationalists who voted for Brexit. But it is peculiar that, after making the EU the defining issue, the First Minister is being so vague on the idea of reversing Brexit so an independent Scotland could remain in the EU. This kind of vagueness on the issues that matter will not increase her chances of winning the referendum.

On the specific issue of timing, Ms Sturgeon’s position is that a vote would be held some time between Autumn 2019 and the following spring, which makes it look like she is trying to keep some kind of link to the Brexit process. But if a referendum is to go ahead in that timescale, then many of the critical decisions will need to be made by the end of the year, long before we know what Brexit will look like.

There is also no guarantee that by the end of the timetable the First Minister has proposed that the Brexit deal will be done.

This is a serious issue for the voters who are expected to make a decision on independence. We can no longer remain in both the UK and the EU, but voters must know where they stand on both before a referendum takes place. Many people voted No last time because of unanswered questions about the future and this time the question of Brexit needs to be answered before another vote is held. The First Minister has taken her gamble and the momentum is building, but another referendum on independence should only happen once we know, definitively and clearly, the results of the Brexit negotiations.

‘‘ Despite all the planning, the First Minister is taking a huge gamble with the future of her party and with her own career