Bute House showdown looms as May begins UK tour

THERESA May begins her Brexit Grand Tour of the UK today with a visit to Wales, raising the prospect that she will visit Scotland for a showdown with Nicola Sturgeon next week.

Downing Street has made clear that the Prime Minister’s trip to Wales is part of a “series of visits” involving the devolved nations ahead of the triggering of Article 50, set for the middle of next week.

Mrs May’s visit comes as Swansea signs its historic City Deal, which is expected to create more than 9,000 jobs and trigger almost £1.3 billion in investment.

Tomorrow, MSPs will begin their two-day deliberations on the issue of whether or not to give the First Minister a mandate to seek a parliamentary order to transfer the power from Westminster to Holyrood to hold a second independence referendum.

Given the majority the SNP has along with the Greens, the Scottish Parliament is widely expected to give Ms Sturgeon that mandate. However, last week, Mrs May made clear she felt this was not the time to hold another vote on Scotland’s future and that she would refuse a so-called Section 30 Order – even if Holyrood voted for one.

UK Government ministers have also made clear they have no intention of entering into discussions with the SNP administration on a second referendum until after the Brexit deal is completed, which is expected to be in March 2019.

Whitehall insiders have suggested that, to all intents and purposes, the UK Government’s position is there will be no second poll until after the 2021 Holyrood election.

This is because Mrs May and her colleagues believe that, without a majority in Edinburgh, the SNP has no mandate to call for another vote.

Yesterday, Ms Sturgeon, who has set her preferred time-frame for a vote between the autumn of 2018 and the spring of 2019, suggested she might be willing to move it a few months.

Ms Sturgeon told ITV’s Peston on Sunday programme: “What I also said is if that timetable changes, if the two-year Article 50 process was, for example, to be extended or some other change that we can’t foresee right now, then, of course, that window that I’ve set may change as well because what’s most important in all of this is that Scotland gets an informed choice.”