Shape of Brexit after Conservative setback at the polls

able to capitalise on opposition to a referendum without having to say much about Brexit.

Both government’s ‘won’ their elections in the sense of emerging as the largest parties but neither gained the political endorsement they were seeking.

An independence referendum is off the table for the time being but the issue of Scotland’s place in the UK and Europe is not. Scotland has distinct economic interests in Brexit. There is wide support for a more liberal policy on European workers.

There is an argument about whether key powers coming back from Europe will go to Holyrood rather than to Westminster.

After the election, there is political scope to reconsider Scotland’s place in Brexit. The SNP has lost political support but, as the third party in a hung parliament, still has political leverage. The Scottish Conservatives, now that their independence fox has been shot, will have to adopt clearer policies and could distance themselves from hard Brexit. Scottish Labour has the opportunity to strike a distinct position, given UK Labour’s ambivalence over free movement and the single market.

As parties in Northern Ireland, Wales and London share many of the same concerns, Westminster may no longer be able to set the terms of debate.

The failure of the UK Conservatives to secure their mandate reopens the question not only of what sort of Brexit will be will have but of the future of the United Kingdom itself.