Rural areas to lose 25% of people
SCOTLAND’S most remote communities are expected to lose more than a quarter of their population over the next three decades and threaten their very existence, according to new research.
Experts said shrinking numbers living in the Highlands and islands would lead to a “spiral of decline” which will change the landscape forever.
It comes amid calls to reverse the Highland Clearances and regenerate long-forgotten townships decimated by historic upheavals and forced evictions.
Research by the James Hutton Institute revealed the working age population in Scotland’s rural areas will plummet by a third by 2046.
It said this would have “serious implications” for local workforces and the economy and pose a threat to crofting as a way of life.
Dr Andrew Copus, lead author of the Institute’s report, said: “Scotland’s sparsely populated areas have a demographic legacy which, in the absence of intervention, will result in decades of population decline, and shrinkage of its working age population on a scale which implies serious challenges for economic development.
“Our research underlines a divergence in the demographic development of these areas to the rest of the country. The key issue is a relatively small number of children and young people, which in the years to come will translate into a shrinking working age population, projected to decrease by 33 per cent by 2046.”
The institute’s research found “sparsely populated areas” – defined as those where fewer than 10,000 people can be reached within 30 minutes of travel – account for almost half of Scotland, but contain just 2.6 per cent of the population.
And according to projections, these areas will lose more than a quarter of their existing population by 2046 – with the Western Isles, Argyll and Bute and Southern Uplands among the worst hit.
Dr Calum Macleod, policy director of Community Land Scotland, previously called for ambitious plans to inject life back into the Highlands and islands.
He argues townships destroyed by the Highland Clearances could be mapped and regenerated in a bid to reverse the historic depopulation of Scotland’s land.
He wants ministers to be able to compulsorily purchase land for the purpose of resettlement.
Dr Macleod said the Institute’s research showed an “imaginative and forward-thinking” approach to planning legislation was needed to reverse the tide. He added: “What that research demonstrates is the really quite pressing need to think in an imaginative way about policy and practical actions to repopulate some of these places.”
The Institute said its findings helped place the current debate over repopulating the Highlands and Islands, or “rewilding” the land and returning it to nature, in an “objective, evidence-based context”. But it insisted its analysis was not intended to support either view.
A Scottish Government spokesman said it was “committed to supporting people to remain and thrive in our rural areas”.
He added: “Remote and rural living and depopulation, in particular, present significant challenges. We are ensuring rural communities are among the first to benefit from on 100 per cent access to superfast broadband, working to increase rural housing stock, and are committed to producing a rural skills action plan.”
The key issue is a relatively small number of young people