A reasoned economic case but it won’t please everyone

ANDREW Wilson’s Sustainable Growth Commission has produced a reasoned economic case for Scottish independence. His report replaces the 2014 White Paper which contained several hostages to fortune.

These included the assumption that Scotland would be part of a currency union with the rest of the UK and that North Sea oil revenue could be relied on to shore up Scotland’s fiscal deficit.

The production of the report shows a commitment to long-term strategic thinking, contrasting sharply with both major UK parties, which seem unable to articulate any clear vision of the UK economy post-brexit.

Both the Tories and Labour have deep internal divisions about post-brexit Britain (and therefore implicitly Scotland). These range from the “buccaneering”, low-tax, global trading UK economy beloved of right-wing Tories to the much more interventionist (and implicitly higher-tax) vision of Jeremy Corbyn’s supporters.

The Growth Commission report, by contrast, is rooted in a much more socialdemocratic outlook.

Its analysis is much more refined than the 2014 White Paper. For example, Scotland’s productivity challenge is related to evidence of how other small countries have sought to increase output per worker hour.

Part of the proposed solution is to establish a Productivity Commission, along the lines of Denmark or Norway. This proposal, as well as many others in the report, could be met within existing Scottish Government powers.

It will be under pressure to implement these because SNP supporters will view them as necessary steps on the road to independence.

The other parties are likely to be challenged for their failure to develop alternative strategic proposals within existing powers.

However, the Growth Commission’s vision of independence will not be universally welcomed.

It accepts that Scotland has a significant fiscal deficit that will have to be addressed immediately following independence. It also accepts that Scotland should pay service charges on UK debt and forecasts that interest charges on new debt issuance for an independent Scotland would be around 1% higher than in the rest of the UK.

This is likely to put considerable pressure on public spending until fiscal deficits are reduced from around 6% to a level more consistent with other small countries of around 3%.

It cautions against assumptions that simply raising taxes will solve the deficit problem. Those who hoped for a rapid expansion of public services postindependence will not be impressed.

Many other elements of the report are contentious, such as the new proposals for currency and for increasing the number of migrants coming to Scotland.

But the Growth Commission report is a useful contribution to a strategic debate on Scotland’s economic future.