It is all about the economy and that’s why it is still a ‘No’

“IT’S the economy, stupid”. James Carville’s famous maxim from Bill

Clinton’s winning campaign of 1992 became an accepted truth of modern politics. If you had to come up with a single reason for the outcome the independence referendum then that would have to be it.

The setting up of the SNP’S Growth Commission was an acceptance that, for all the “uplifting vision”’ and campaigning of how much better we could be as an independent nation, most Scots looked at the bottom line and firmly but politely said, no thanks. Last weekend the First Minister announced her intention to reopen the debate on independence – as if it had ever been allowed to close.

Yesterday we saw the report of their Growth Commission. After the White Paper of 2013 this is supposed to be more of an “off-white paper”.

The Growth Commission Report has left more people scratching their heads than applauding. Their latest magnum opus may be a tacit admission of the weaknesses of the case that they argued four years ago but there is no hint of an acknowledgement of the divisions that are left following our last canter round this course. The new report actually tells us more about what the nationalists were wrong about in 2014 than anything else.

Despite years of taking a swipe at the credibility of the Gers figures, they now seem to agree that Gers are appropriate assessment of Scotland’s current fiscal position.

Also, they seem more firmly fixed on an independent Scottish currency, against economic sense and the will of voters who want to keep the pound. But it is a “Panama Option” – using the pound without controlling it. This time the “vision” is of independence where all the

There is no hint of an acknowledgement of the divisions that are left from the last canter over this particular course

decisions about currency and interest rates are made in a foreign capital. An independent country which does not set its own interest rates does not sound very independent to me.

The nationalists, of course, will tell you that Brexit has changed everything and that is why we now need to reopen old wounds. They may be right but not in the way they think. If Messrs Fox, Gove and Johnson get their way then we may be about to see the damage that can be done to an economy that accounts for 15% of our exports. That being the case I cannot think that there will be much appetite for removing ourselves from the single market that accounts for more than two thirds of Scotland’s exports.